DSL Growth Is ‘Telecoms Success Story’, Says Point Topic

The report says that growth was stronger than the first half in both absolute and percentage terms, with operators across the globe signing up new customers, despite what has been a difficult period for the communications industry. Almost every top 50 market saw double-digit growth in H2 2002, partly due to a seasonal effect seen in computers and electronic consumer goods purchases.

Point Topic says that the figures represent clear evidence that DSL is firmly established in a pattern of steady growth. However, this does not necessarily mean that every country will see the growth rates enjoyed by South Korea and Japan, where particular social and geographical factors are behind rapid broadband take-up.

The UK saw growth of 89.3% year on year in H2 2002, putting it second in the top ten, behind China’s substantial 214.0% jump. Despite this strong growth, though, the UK’s DSL market is still too small to feature in the top ten markets in absolute terms (currently led by the US). Even in terms of penetration – for which South Korea is top – the UK does not yet make the top ten.

The report also notes that the importance of cable modems needs to be taken into account in the analysis of many broadband markets, particularly the USA, Canada, Austria, the Netherlands and the UK, where they are more numerous than DSL.

Top Ten Countries For % Growth In DSL Lines, H2 2002
Rank	Country	H2 2002 % growth
1	China	214.0
2	UK	89.3
3	France	86.9
4	Finland	82.5
5	Switzerland	77.9
6	Israel	72.4
7	Chile	71.4
8	Japan	70.9
9	Australia	70.5
10	Netherlands	69.6
Note: Only countries with over 100,000 DSL lines are listed.
Source: Point Topic, March 2003

Full year figures show a worldwide growth of 90.8%, taking the total number of DSL subscribers to 35.9 million. A majority 86.1% of these customers are residential, with just 13.9% of lines rented by businesses.

Western Europe showed growth of 121.0%, taking its total subs to 9.4 million.

DSL Lines (000s) As At Year-End 2002
	Total Subscribers	Residential Subscribers	Residential % of total	Business Subscribers	Business % of total	% Annual Growth
Asia-Pacific	14,518	12,977	89.4	1,540	10.6	82.6
Western Europe	9,379	7,638	81.4	1,741	18.6	121.0
North America	8,177	6,894	84.3	1,283	15.7	48.4
South & East Asia	2,652	2,489	93.9	163	6.1	321.8
Latin America	875	698	79.8	177	20.2	117.4
Middle East & Africa	173	137	79.0	37	21.0	262.1
Eastern Europe	124	70	56.2	54	43.8	274.9
World total	35,897	30,903	86.1	4,994	13.9	90.8
Source: Point Topic, March 2003

Point Topic forecasts that whilst DSL percentage growth rates will naturally drop as the customer base gets larger, growth in absolute terms should remain relatively steady after initial, rapid expansion.