Claims that digital video recorders (DVRs), video-on-demand (VOD) and emerging online platforms will cause the death of TV and result in the loss of billions in advertising revenue are incorrect, according to eMarketer.
Audiences are becoming increasingly fragmented with the changes in TV distribution and access, but more people will watch more TV and video content in the future, just via different platforms, the group claims.
eMarketer estimates that by 2010 there will be 157 million online video users in the US, up from approximately 108 million in 2006.
Currently, the leading paid video download site in the US is iTunes, according to NPD Group, but it is likely that YouTube and other sites will emerge as serious competitors to iTunes in the future.
While TV networks may be losing primetime audiences Stateside, new revenue streams such as downloads of TV programs from the internet may emerge as the “money for jam”.
Veronis Suhler Stevenson estimates that by 2010 spending on downloads for TV programs will total $625 million, up from only $12 million in 2005. When revenue from paid-for-downloads via cable is added in, the total is put at $938 million in 2010, up from $82 million in 2006.
Leichtman Research Group recently reported that VOD is now in 25 million digital cable homes in the US, and 60% of digital cable subscribers have used VOD, up from 25% two years ago. However, LRG says that the overall impact of DVRs and VOD on US television viewing remains small (see VOD Now In 25 Million US Cable Homes).
A recent study from MPG showed that the growth in penetration of digital video recorders in the US did not appear to be impacting live ratings of major network broadcasters’ live schedules and could in fact be helping attract larger audiences to shows (see US DVR Penetration Not Impacting Live Ratings).
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