The value of the Western European broadband access market is set to quadruple in the next four years, according to figures from The Yankee Group.
Residential ADSL subscriptions are predicted to rise from 2.9 million to more than 33 million by the end of the forecast period with revenues increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 75%. Similarly, The Yankee Group forecasts that business DSL revenues will grow at a 78% CAGR as a growing number of SMEs recognise the benefits of the technology.
A lack of effective competition ensures that the cost of ADSL is significantly higher than cable. However, average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to converge and stabilise at about $30 for ADSL and $27 for cable modem by 2006, as more players enter the market and high-speed services become more affordable.
Western European Broadband Revenues ($ million) | ||||||
2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | |
Cable Modem Residential Revenue | 474 | 1,052 | 1,635 | 2,036 | 2,376 | 2,618 |
DSL Residential Revenue | 498 | 2,019 | 3,677 | 5,503 | 7,003 | 8,128 |
DSL Business Revenue | 452 | 1,623 | 3,128 | 4,766 | 6,449 | 8,150 |
Total Broadband Revenue | 1,424 | 4,694 | 8,440 | 12,305 | 15,828 | 18,896 |
Source, The Yankee Group, 2003 |