Global adspend forecast to fall 9.9% in 2009
ZenithOptimedia has downgraded its global ad growth forecast for 2009 and now expects a decline of 9.9% this year.
However, the second half is developing in line with predictions, demonstrating a clear improvement in the rate of decline, said Zenith.
Carat recently forecast a 9.8% fall in global adspend for this year.
Zenith predicts that internet advertising will grow 9% this year, reaching a 14.9% share of global adspend by 2011.
The outlook is less bright for newspapers and magazines, with their adspend shrinking every year across the forecast period, resting at 25% and 28% below their respective 2007 peaks by 2011.
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 186,758 | 179,763 | 157,107 | 150,832 | 152,059 |
| Western Europe | 122,888 | 121,016 | 107,450 | 106,341 | 109,736 |
| Asia Pacific | 104,919 | 107,332 | 103,966 | 107,442 | 114,450 |
| Central & Eastern Europe | 31,296 | 35,227 | 27,862 | 29,258 | 32,071 |
| Latin America | 26,511 | 30,404 | 30,573 | 32,533 | 34,968 |
| Africa/M. East ROW | 16,486 | 20,181 | 17,879 | 20,483 | 22,627 |
| World | 488,858 | 493,924 | 444,837 | 446,889 | 465,911 |
The Zenith figures also reveal that the world’s largest media owners suffered an average 13.1% drop in their media revenues in the first six months of 2009. Zenith found that apart from Google, every one of the top media owners shrank in the first half of the year.
| Total Revenues | Media Revenues | |
|---|---|---|
| Time Warner | -7.9 | -7.7 |
| News Corporation | -13.2 | -16.4 |
| 4.5 | 4.0 | |
| CBS Corporation | -12.5 | -16.5 |
| Bertelsmann | -6.8 | -9.9 |
| Gannet | -17.8 | -17.6 |
| Yahoo! | -12.8 | -12.8 |
| Clear Channel Communications | -22.1 | -22.5 |
| Mediaset | -13.2 | -13.7 |
| ITV | -11.8 | -16.0 |
| DMGT | -14.6 | -16.2 |
| TF1 | -16.4 | -16.7 |
| Axel Springer | -6.6 | -2.9 |
| New York Times Company | -19.9 | -18.8 |
| JCDecaux | -13.3 | -13.3 |
| Average | -12.3 | -13.1 |
A 0.5% recovery is expected in 2010, down from Zenith’s forecast of 1.6% growth made in July. Looking further ahead, adspend is predicted to grow 4.3% globally in 2011, with all regions experiencing some expansion.
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newspapers | 27.0 | 25.3 | 23.3 | 22.2 | 21.2 |
| Magazines | 12.3 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| Television | 37.4 | 38.2 | 39.3 | 39.7 | 39.9 |
| Radio | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Cinema | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Outdoor | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| Internet | 8.3 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 14.9 |