Global adspend ‘to increase 4% in 2013’
Advertising expenditure growth is expected to increase this year and next despite the fragility of the global economy, according to Warc’s latest Consensus Ad Forecast.
The Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc’s own team and industry bodies.
Overall, the report predicts adspend will rise by 4% in 2013 and 5.5% in 2014, ahead of the 3.9% uptick estimated for 2012. Within this, 11 of the 13 featured markets should grow this year, and all of them will next year.
“In 2012, the industry benefited from the Olympics and the US presidential election. In 2013, we’re all keen to see how advertising holds up without these quadrennial factors,” Suzy Young, Warc’s data editor, commented.
“There are still risks for global economic growth. Marketers are not ready to adjust their cautious approach just yet.”
The US, the world’s biggest advertising market, is in line to enjoy expansions of 2.2% in 2013 and 4% in 2014. It was also projected to have witnessed a 3.7% gain in 2012.
Russia, however, is likely to be the fastest-growing market this year thanks to a 12.3% leap, followed by China on 10.9% and Brazil on 9.8%. Spain is set to log the worst performance in 2013, with adspend down 2.8%.
Brazil is expected to assume the top spot in growth terms next year, up by 12.1%, ahead of India on 12%, China on 11.2% and Russia on 11%. Spain should return to positive territory, with a 0.2% lift, but will remain at the bottom of the charts.
By channel, the internet is predicted to increase demand in excess of 13% annually going forwards, although this marks a moderation from the estimated 14.4% expansion recorded last year.
Television will also prove robust, as revenues rise by 3.2% in 2013 and 6.4% in 2014. France could be an outlier among the nations analysed, being the only country where TV adspend is expected to drop in both years.
Newspapers are due to see growth in both 2013 and 2014 in just three nations: Brazil, India and Russia. China joins this group for magazines, showing that fast-growth markets are vital for publishers.
Worldwide, though, newspaper ad sales are pegged to contract by 2.7% this year and 1.6% next, figures hitting 2.5% and 1.7% for magazines, indicating the broader structural issues facing the print sector.