Global Advertising Forecasts 2002 Round-Up
As a difficult 2001 drew to a close a number of media analysts and forecasters made last minute adjustments to their advertising predictions for the year and for 2002.
Below is a comparison of the most recent set of ad growth forecasts for 2001 and 2002, by country and region, taking into account revisions made towards the end of December.
The consensus growth forecasts for the UK for 2001 and 2002 are now -2.8% and 0.5% respectively. North America comes in at -5.9% for 2001 and -0.5% for 2002.
The consensus for global growth is that last year will come in at -4.4%, with 2002 failing to achieve a return to positive growth, with the forecast average at -0.6%. However, Zenith Media is more optimistic with a positive prediction of 0.8%, whilst ABN’s -1.9% drags the average back below zero.
| Zenith Media and ABN Amro ad growth forecasts | ||||||||
| ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ |
| ÂÂ | 2001 | 2002 | ||||||
| ÂÂ | Zenith Media | ABN Amro | Universal McCann | Average | Zenith Media | ABN Amro | Universal McCann | Average |
| North America | -5.7 | -8.2 | -3.9 | -5.9 | -1.3 | -2.7 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
| France | -3.2 | -3.8 | 2.8 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -2.2 | 3.2 | 0.2 |
| Germany | -5.5 | -3.8 | -0.5 | -3.3 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| Italy | -1.1 | -5.0 | -1.0 | -2.4 | 1.9 | -0.2 | -1.0 | 0.2 |
| Spain | -6.2 | -11.1 | – | -8.7 | -0.4 | -2.5 | – | -1.5 |
| UK | -4.0 | -5.4 | 0.9 | -2.8 | 0.7 | -1.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Europe | -2.1 | -4.9 | – | -3.5 | 1.7 | -1.0 | – | 0.4 |
| Japan | -0.9 | -1.0 | -3.5 | -1.8 | 0.0 | -3.6 | -4.0 | -2.5 |
| Asia Pacific | -1.0 | -2.9 | – | -2.0 | 2.0 | -0.6 | – | 0.7 |
| Latin America | -1.9 | 0.0 | – | -1.0 | 4.4 | 0.7 | – | 2.6 |
| TOTAL | -3.4 | -5.3 | – | -4.4 | 0.8 | -1.9 | – | -0.6 |
| ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ |
| Source: Zenith Media, ABN Amro, 12/01 | ||||||||
