The global mobile market is expected to pass two billion subscribers by 2005 and is predicted to approach three billion by 2010 as the growth rate falls to single figures within a couple of years, according to Informa Telecoms & Media.
The latest edition of the
Global Mobile Forecasts to 2010 report claims that almost half of new subscriptions will be in the Asia Pacific, with India and China accounting for over 30% of the region’s total.
Asia Pacific’s dominance is confirmed in eMarketer’s latest report, Asia-Pacific Wireless: Mobility on the Cutting Edge, predicting less mature wireless markets, such as China, India, the Philippines and Indonesia to enjoy a stronger subscriber base growth than more mature regions (see Asia Pacific Remains Strongest Growth In Wireless Arena).
Africa and the Middle East are forecast to show the greatest growth in mobile subscriptions, with their combined markets expected to more than double in size by 2010, adding over 200 million new customers over the next five years.
As a result of the continued growth, several countries are already reporting penetration rates of over 100%, with Informa predicting Western Europe’s penetration to breach 100% in a couple of years and total global saturation to hit 43% by 2010.
Mobile phone penetration in the UK exceeded 100% early this year, with figures from the Mobile Data Association (MDA) showing that the number of mobile handsets currently in circulation is greater than the UK’s population (see UK Mobile Phone Penetration Higher Than Population).
However, according to the report, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) levels are still falling, with operators hoping to see the introduction of 2.5G and 3G push ARPU upwards being somewhat disheartened.
Mark Newman, Informa Telecoms & Media’s chief research officer said: “While the industry has tended to underestimate subscriber levels, it has been over-optimistic on ARPU levels.”
However, the increasing use of enhanced services over 2.5 and 3G networks is expected to lead to an increase in data APRU and revenues from data services are forecast to rise by 83% between 2005 and 2010. This growth will not be enough to counteract the effect of falling voice revenues, as growth in the overall market declines, with negative growth expected for total revenues in 2009 and 2010.
Strong take-up for 3G is not predicted to happen until 2008 and even by 2010, less than a third of the total subscriptions globally will be for 3G.
Subscriptions to 3G mobile telephone services in the Asia-Pacific region are predicted to rise by over 130 million in the next four years, according to market intelligence firm, IDC (see Asia-Pacific 3G Penetration To Hit Over 140 Million By 2009).
3G services, which provide high-speed data capabilities and advanced audio and video applications, are estimated to enjoy substantial growth, jumping to 142.6 million subscribers in 2009, from just 10.2 million in 2004.
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