The total global mobile subscriber market is forecast to reach 2.7 billion by 2010, with shipments of handsets breaking the one million mark by 2009, according to new research from Juniper Research.
The
Next Generation Handsets 2005-2010 report attributes strong sales of handsets to good growth in the Asia Pacific markets and increasing replacement rates in mature markets.
According to market intelligence firm, IDC, subscriptions to 3G mobile telephone services in the Asia-Pacific region are predicted to rise by over 130 million in the next four years (see Asia-Pacific 3G Penetration To Hit Over 140 Million By 2009).
Juniper forecast 3G technology to enjoy a surge in use, predicting subscribers to reach over 300 million by 2010, up from 30 million in 2004. However, the research experts argue that 3G benefits more from its ability to accommodate a greater number of users and network traffic than its advanced service delivery.
Other key findings of the report include a warning from Juniper that the mobile communications industry is too preoccupied with technology advances and not focused enough on what makes users tick. The report argues that vendors and operators must stop filling mobiles with features and concentrate on a more “sophisticated needs and segmentation based approach to the design of handsets and services.”
Juniper also asserts that there is a pressing industry wide need for more empathetic customer care, with service providers needing to review how services are presented and take greater control of their relationships with customers.
The global mobile market is expected to pass two billion subscribers by 2005 and is predicted to approach three billion by 2010 as the growth rate falls to single figures within a couple of years, according to Informa Telecoms & Media (see INSIGHTanalysis: Media Healthcheck – April 2005). The latest edition of the Global Mobile Forecasts to 2010 report claims that almost half of new subscriptions will be in the Asia Pacific, with India and China accounting for over 30% of the region’s total. Strong take-up for 3G is not predicted to happen until 2008 and even by 2010 less than a third of the total subscriptions globally will be for 3G.
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