UK media investment is predicted to fall 14% this year and 3% next year, according to the latest media and marketing forecast from GroupM.
GroupM has revised its forecast from March 2009, with the main change coming for print, which has moved from a fall of 20% to a fall of 26%.
Print classifieds are set to suffer, raising £718 million in 2009, a 40% drop from 2008 and 60% lower than its 1,817 million peak in 2004.
Its forecast for 2009 consumer magazines adspend has fallen from minus 16% in March to minus 20% now as circulations fall but supply still outstrips advertiser demand.
GroupM’s TV forecast has stabilised, however, at a drop of 14%.
“Some sort” of recovery is predicted for 2010, although consumer demand is assumed to remain weak for at least another year as falling jobs, ages, debts and house prices play out.
| Media, £m, net |
2008f |
2009f |
2010f |
| TV |
3,356 |
2,887 |
2,798 |
| Radio |
388 |
330 |
300 |
| Print |
4,770 |
3,650 |
3,448 |
| Outdoor and cinema |
943 |
819 |
832 |
| Internet |
3,290 |
3,290 |
3,301 |
| Media total £m |
12,747 |
10,976 |
10,680 |
“No previous ad recession has put household media names at risk like this one has, from local newspapers to high-street magazines to national TV channels,” said GroupM.
| Media YOY % change |
2008f |
2009f |
2010f |
| TV |
-4.1 |
-14 |
-3.1 |
| Radio |
-8.1 |
-14.9 |
-9 |
| National newspapers |
-8.2 |
-18.6 |
-8.7 |
| Regional newspapers |
-19.1 |
-31.9 |
1.1 |
| Consumer magazines |
-7.6 |
-20 |
-9 |
| B2B magazines |
-8 |
-15 |
-10 |
| Outdoor |
-3.8 |
-14 |
2.1 |
| Cinema |
0.6 |
-10 |
-0.2 |
| Internet |
20.5 |
0 |
0.3 |
| Media |
-2.7 |
-13.9 |
-2.7 |
| Marketing services, £m net |
8,859 |
7,880 |
7,630 |
| Marketing services YOY % change |
|
|
|
| Direct mail, inserts, doordrops |
-7 |
-14.3 |
-3.7 |
| Directories |
-6 |
-10.6 |
-3.4 |
| Sponsorship |
5 |
-11.8 |
-8 |
| Market Research |
1 |
-5 |
1 |
| Public Relations |
7 |
0.1 |
0 |
| Marketing services |
-3.3 |
-11.1 |
-3.2 |
In April, ZenithOptimedia forecast that UK ad spending will fall 8.7% this year, with global spend predicted to shrink by 6.9% (see UK adspend forecast to fall 8.7% in 2009).
In March, Carat forecast that UK adspend would fall 7.1% this year, with worldwide spend falling 5.8% (see Carat forecasts 7.1% drop in UK advertising spend this year).
