GroupM forecasts global adspend recovery to begin in 2010
Global advertising spending in measured media is expected to drop 6.6% to $445 billion in 2009 with a mild growth of 0.8% now expected in 2010 to $448 billion, according to a new 70-country forecast report from GroupM.
The BRIIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China) are expected to lead the recovery while ad spending in the US and Western Europe will probably lag behind, according to the report.
Advertising expenditures in the United States are expected to fall 8% this year followed by an anticipated 4.3% drop in 2010, according to the report. Those figures compare to an average 8.4% decline in 2009 followed by a 2.8% drop in 2010 in the G7 nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US).
GroupM’s new long-range model expects global ad revenue growth to return to annual growth in the range 6%-7% from 2011-2014, around a point ahead of expected nominal global GDP growth.
Last week, GroupM released a revised forecast for UK adspend, predicting a fall of 12% year on year in 2009.
The revised forecast, forming part of its series of ‘This Year, Next Year‘ reports, also predicted that ad spending in 2010 will be the same as 2009, with another small improvement.