Forecasts from NetProfit predict that ecommerce in the UK will be worth $255.19 billion by 2005 with 11% generated by business to consumer sales and 89% by businesses trading online. This figure is considerably less than Forrester’s forecast of £300 billion for business trading alone by the same date (see Forecasts) but still represents a considerable shift in spending as both businesses and consumers move to online purchasing. The UK is set to experience higher growth rates than the US for the next four years although the more-established US market must be factored into this equation.
Source: Net Profit
Recently Forrester claimed that UK businesses would have to work hard to overcome organisational and technological barriers to the success of their online operations. “In 2005, UK online business trade will pass £300 billion and eMarketplaces will facilitate 41% of these online transactions, but many firms will move too slowly to capture the benefits of online trade,” said Forrester analyst David Metcalfe.
Almost 73% of companies surveyed for the latest Report On eBusiness from Forrester claimed that they used the internet for ‘indirect’ purchases, an increase from the 71% recorded in the previous quarter, and 54% used the internet for purchasing ‘direct’ materials, again this was an increase on the previous quarter’s figure of 46%.
Source: Net Profit
eMarketer estimates that by 2005, worldwide B2B ecommerce will be worth $2.7 trillion with $797 billion being generated by European online trading. As with most online services, other regions of the world are expected to rapidly catch up to North America. eMarketer expects B2B commerce in Europe to surpass $797 billion in Europe and $300 billion in Asia by 2005 (see Forecasts).
| Worldwide B2C eCommerce Revenue Comparisons ($b) |
| |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
| eMarketer |
60 |
101 |
167 |
250 |
428 |
| Forrester |
53 |
96 |
169 |
284 |
452 |
| Gartner |
|
|
|
380 |
|
| IDC |
59 |
|
|
213 |
|
| Ovum |
29 |
49 |
81 |
133 |
219 |
Consumer spending online understandably accounts for a fraction of all revenue generated although NetProfit believes it will grow at a comparable rate. Spending in the UK is again forecast to grow at a much higher rate that in the US.
Source: Net Profit
eMarketer forecasts that growth in the global B2C market will be slow in the short term although forecasts that the global market will be worth £428 billion by 2004, currently North America accounts for just over 70% of online trade.
An important factor in the growth of online B2C selling is the growth in non-PC access to the net. Jupiter believes that as, for example, interactive TV access grows, so B2C commerce revenues will increase. By 2005, £3.2bn will be generated in the UK via interactive TV compared with £25.5bn via PCs (see Forecasts)
