Insight Analysis: US Advertising Forecast Comparisons
US advertising will grow by 1.6% in 2002, leading the global ad industry out of two years of decline, according to a consensus of recent advertising forecasts. Growth is then expected to rise to around 3.6% in 2003, hit 4.2% in 2004 and fall back to 3.7% in 2005.
These averages were taken from the most recent forecast data from Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Universal McCann, Jack Myers Report, ABN AMRO, Zenith Optimedia, Jupiter Research and the World Advertising Research Centre, as shown.
A similar average, but generated using forecasts only from those groups which publish global and regional figures as well as US data, yields a slightly lower growth rate of 1.3% in 2002 and 3.5% in 2003 (see Insight Analysis: Global And Regional Advertising Forecast Comparisons).
Included in the figures below are the US-only forecasters, Jack Myers Report and Jupiter Research, which overall contribute to a slightly more optimistic picture for the US market.
| US Advertising Growth Forecast Comparisons | ||||
| ÂÂ | ||||
| ÂÂ | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
| Lehman Brothers | 1.4 | 3.7 | – | – |
| Merrill Lynch | 0.7 | 4.0 | – | – |
| Universal McCann | 2.7 | 5.3 | – | – |
| WARC | 1.4 | 4.0 | – | – |
| Jack Myers Report | 2.5 | 2.8 | – | – |
| ABN AMRO | 0.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | – |
| Zenith Optimedia | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| Jupiter Research | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.0 |
| Average | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| Source: As above, compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT, December 2002 | ||||
