INSIGHTanalysis: Media Healthcheck – November 2007

Naqi Jaffery, president and chief analyst at Telecom Trends International, said that just as mobile voice is becoming the primary means of voice communication, mobile TV will eventually become the primary means of accessing television (see More Than Two Billion To Use Mobile TV Globally By 2013).

Mobile was one of the big themes in November, with Juniper Research forecasting that mobile gaming revenues will reach nearly $10 billion in 2009.

In total, said Juniper, more than 460 million mobile users are expected to download games by 2009, more than a doubling the current number.

Much of this growth is expected in emerging markets such as the Indian sub-continent, where the number of users will rise from 10 million in 2007 to nearly 40 million in 2009 (see Mobile Games Market Predicted To Reach $10bn by 2009).

However, iSuppli Corp said that the global mobile-gaming market suffered a reversal of fortune in the second quarter of 2007 as revenues for title publishers declined by 9%, compared with 11% growth in the first quarter (see Global Mobile Gaming Revenue Falls in Q2).

iSuppli said that one of the main problems is that the number of subscribers for mobile games remains quite small. Game publishers’ and developers’ moves to broaden the awareness of mobile games will help build the subscriber base – but only if they target the right demographic.

Ad-based revenue models are going to have a profound long-term impact on the development of the mobile industry, claimed a report from telecom analyst firm Berg Insight.

According to the report, the greatest challenge facing providers of mobile advertising is the very low consumption of mobile media (see Ad-Based Revenue Models To Have Profound Impact On Mobile Industry).

Berg also estimated that there are close to 100 million mobile internet users in Europe and North America, although it added that the vast majority of those only access mobile media a few times per month.

Sticking with the internet, the European Interactive Advertising Association (EIAA), said that European internet users are spending an average of 12 hours a week online, an hour more than last year, with youngsters spending morwe time with their computers than the traditional TV set (see Ad-Based Revenue Models To Have Profound Impact On Mobile Industry).

According to the report, the Italians are the heaviest users of the net, with an average 13.6 hours, followed by the Swedes on 13 hours and the French on 12.7 hours. The British – in seventh place – spend 12 hours a week, up from 11.3 hours in 2006. The Dutch are last on 9.8 hours.

In other research, Point Topic forecast the the number of broadband customers in the UK will continue to grow steadily, but at a lower rate, reaching about 21 million by the end of 2012.

About 330,000 and 550,000 consumer broadband lines were added in the middle two quarters of 2007 respectively, said Poitn Topic, the lowest numbers since 2003, and barely half the growth achieved in the previous two quarters (see UK Broadband Customers Will Continue To Grow, But The Rate Will Slow).