By 2017 the internet will be the largest advertising medium in 12 key markets which together represent 28% of global adspend, according to new forecasts from ZenithOptimedia.
In four of these markets internet advertising will attract more than half of total adspend.
Globally, the internet will remain in second place, behind (non IP-delivered) TV, though the gap between the market shares of the two media will shrink from 11 percentage points this year to just four in 2017.
The internet was already the dominant medium in seven markets last year – Australia, Canada, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the UK – and by 2017 will dominate another five – China, Finland, Germany, Ireland and New Zealand.
The internet’s market share will exceed 50% in the UK this year, in Denmark and Sweden next year, and in China in 2017.
“The internet is quickly establishing itself as the dominant advertising medium, and on current trends will overtake television by the end of the decade,” said Steve King, ZenithOptimedia’s CEO, worldwide.
“However, this refers only to traditional television viewed on TV sets. The amount of time viewers spend watching online video on their laptops, tablets and smartphones is increasing rapidly, and advertisers are shifting their budgets online to follow them.
“The spread of internet devices and new advertising technology will give advertisers new opportunities to communicate with and learn from consumers, and to do so more effectively than ever before.”
The main driver of internet growth is mobile advertising. Between 2014 and 2017 Zenith forecasts that mobile will more than double its share of global adspend, from 5.1% to 12.9%. Desktop share will remain stable, changing from 19.3% in 2014 to 19.4% in 2017, while every other medium will lose share to mobile.
Mobile is also the driving force behind the growth of the whole market, and will contribute 70% of all global adspend growth between 2014 and 2017.
Zenith forecasts that global adspend will grow 4.2% to reach $531bn in 2015, and will accelerate to 5.0% growth in 2016, boosted by the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio and the US presidential elections.
Adspend will then slow down slightly in the absence of these events, growing 4.3% in 2017.
