Internet to be a buyers’ market in 2009
The US market research firm eMarketer has released a new report outlining its key predictions for 2009, predicting that the internet will be a buyers’ market this year.
eMarketer also forecasts that search marketing will see spending grow by 14.9% to $12.3 billion in 2009.
Two basic assumptions support this, it said. The first is that the measurability of search will help retain many budgets and increase some others, while the second is that consumers who monetise search ads by deciding whether or not to click will be both taking money off the table (by shopping less) and putting money back on the table (by searching for deals).
Video ad spending growth is forecast to run counter to overall economic developments, rising by 45% in 2009 to reach $850 million, due to the increase of professional video content and the increasing willingness of advertisers to use video to reach online audiences’ “hearts and minds”.
In November, data from Ipsos MediaCT found that the popularity of online video services in the US grew significantly with women and older consumers in the previous six months (see Online Video Services Growing In Popularity In US).
eMarketer also predicts that, with US ad revenue slowing, smaller and niche social networks will have difficulty gaining traction and several may close or be acquired by larger players.
However, e-commerce will be a growing revenue stream for social networking websites, said the online research firm. Both MySpace and Facebook are expected to enhance their self-serve advertising systems to allow consumers and businesses to buy and sell real-world goods and services.
Online retail sales (excluding travel) are predicted to grow by just 4% this year, the first full year to feel the economic impact of the economic crisis. Most retail e-commerce sales growth in the future will come from increased spending by current online buyers.
Towards the end of last year, research from Nielsen Online found that more than three-quarters (78%) of adult online consumers in the US made some type of online purchase in the previous six months (see Ofcom Plans New Public Service Channel To Rival BBC).
eMarketer forecasts that US TV advertising spend will decline 4.2% to $66.9 billion in 2009. This drop in spending reflects not only expectations of a continued poor economy but a seismic shift in the way television advertising is bought and sold.
US newspaper advertising will decline in 2009 more than any other medium, with firms forced to take drastic measures to stay afloat, said eMarketer. Industry-wide cutbacks are expected to continue, with some consolidation also predicted.
The firm also believes that content aggregation will become more important than ever in 2009. It expects to see the emergence of real-time aggregation tools that “combine algorithmic approaches with human input – like a cross between Techmeme and FriendFeed”.