ITV1 To Have Positive 2008
Reports in the Times suggest that ITV will have a very positive 2008, following its best annual on-screen performance since 2001.
Assuming the total TV advertising market remains unchanged in 2008, ITV1 is expected to trade in line with the overall television advertising market, delivering revenues similar to 2007’s estimated £1.22 billion.
One of the reasons for ITV1’s revival is due to the weakened performance of Channel 4, which has suffered from a less popular Big Brother in summer 2007. The channel is expected to continue to suffer in January 2008 due to its suspension of controversial, yet ratings-winner, Celebrity Big Brother. Although this franchise is not appearing on C4 this January, a similar offering shall appear under a new guise on E4 in Big Brother: Celebrity Hijack, although with much lower viewing anticipated. It was reported in the Times that one rival estimates it will lose 22% of its 16-34 audience in the month.
Capitalising on this expected downturn at Channel 4, ITV1 has reinvented its schedule for January, the first to be overseen by chairman Michael Grade. This includes the return of News at Ten on Monday 14 January with Trevor McDonald, the introduction of a Coronation Street double-bill to a Friday night, as well as new weekend entertainment programming.
Media buyers expect Channel 4’s core channel to achieve £715 million in 2007, with this figure expected to fall by £35 million in 2008, although growth in its digital revenues are expected to help close this revenue gap.
The overall television market in 2008 is expected to be unchanged according to JPMorgan. However it believes that if the economy weakens suddenly, then television advertising would decrease by 3%.
ZenithOptimedia, however, forecasts that television advertising will grow by 2% in 2008, but other City analysts are predicting lower growth rates in the belief that the weakness in the housing market will spill over into problems for the wider economy.
One main stumbling block for the TV industry in 2008 is England’s failure to qualify for the summer’s European football championships. Had England qualified, the televising of the tournament would have generated an extra £15 million to £20 million of revenues for ITV.
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