Latest US And Global Ad Forecasts From Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch analysts have slightly downgraded their 2003 US and global advertising growth forecasts, but say that the cuts are much less severe than expected given the “gyrations” experienced so far this year. Viewed in this way, Merrill says that the adjustments are a good thing.
| US And Global Advertising Growth Forecasts | ||||
| ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ |
| ÂÂ | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 |
| Total US | -6.3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 5.9 |
| Total US exc. direct mail | -7.8 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 6.2 |
| Newspaper | -9.4 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 4.9 |
| Broadcast television | -13.2 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 7.6 |
| TV networks | -10.0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 8.0 |
| TV stations | -16.8 | 8.9 | -2.0 | 7.6 |
| Cable | 0.5 | 2.9 | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| Radio | -7.5 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 8.1 |
| Magazine | -7.5 | -3.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| Internet | -11.6 | -5.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 |
| Non-US | -8.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 3.9 |
| Global | -8.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.1 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch, May 2003 | ||||
The strong television upfront markets in the US (see US Upfronts Hit Record $9bn-Plus Autumn Sales) are not anticipated to have a huge bearing on overall advertising expenditures, or on the performance of other media. Nevertheless, a strong upfront market will do the confidence of the industry no harm.
The broker says confidence is building that the US economy is now heading into a modest recovery and that a modestly-paced advertising upswing should follow suit.
Q1 2003 estimates Merrill Lynch has also compiled first quarter growth estimates for the US markets, based on data available so far from the each sector. These are shown below.
| US Q1 2003 Advertising Growth Estimates | |
| ÂÂ | ÂÂ |
| ÂÂ | Growth (%) |
| Total US exc. direct mail | 3.3 |
| Newspaper | 1.5-2.0 |
| Magazines | 7.0-8.0 |
| Broadcast television | -0.1 |
| TV networks | -5.4 |
| TV stations | 3.0 |
| Cable | 12.9 |
| Radio | 3.5-4.0 |
| Yellow pages | 1.5 |
| Outdoor | 5.3 |
| Internet | 6.9 |
| Other advertising | 3.0 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch, May 2003 | |