LCD TV shipments to grow 7% in 2012
2012 looks to be a repeat of 2011, with LCD growing at the expense of CRT and plasma, and developed market declines cancelling out emerging market growth, according to the latest NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report.
For the second year in a row, worldwide TV shipments are expected to remain flat. 2012 shipments to developed markets, especially Western Europe and Japan, are expected to be down 11% year on year, which would offset the forecasted 8% year on year growth in emerging markets. Even so, growth is projected to continue for the LCD TV market as it captures market share from declining CRT (cathode ray tube) and plasma technologies.
“Consumers are continuing to spend cautiously in developed regions, especially in countries with high rates of flat panel TV penetration, so price differences can have a strong impact and LCD is expected to continue narrowing the price gap with plasma,” noted Paul Gagnon, Director of North America TV Research for NPD DisplaySearch.
Despite no growth in overall TV shipments for two years running, LCD continues to grow by taking share from both CRT and plasma technologies. LCD TVs are expected to account for more than 88.5% of total TV shipments worldwide in 2012, up from 82.5% in 2011, and rising to more than 90% by next year. By contrast, plasma TV will account for just 5.3% of shipment volume in 2012 after peaking at about 7.4% in 2010.
LCD TV shipments will grow 7% to 220m in 2012, and rise to 241m in 2013. Plasma TV shipments will fall 24% in 2012 to 13.1m, dropping to less than 3m by 2015.
The newest flat panel TV technology, OLED, will debut in large sizes in 2012, but volume will be very small, just 50K units or less.
In addition to growth in flat panel TV share, larger sizes continue to increase their share, lifting the average size of TVs shipped to almost 35″ in 2012 from less than 30″ just four years ago. The growing number of larger factories used to produce LCD TV panels has helped the average area price to fall rapidly. In developed markets, this is important because it encourages existing flat panel TV households to trade up to a larger size, driving a new replacement wave, and it also lowers barriers to first-time adoption in emerging markets when converting from CRT TVs.
Worldwide TV Forecast by Technology
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report
The share of LED backlight LCD TVs is expected to increase to 70.1% in 2012, compared to just 45.3% in 2011.
In terms of 3D, despite a soft start in North America, 3D is proving a popular feature in other regions, helping to drive shipments of more than 24m units in 2011 and an anticipated 90% increase in 2012 to 46m units. Shipment penetration is expected to exceed 25% in both Western Europe and China and 20% in Eastern Europe. While North America is still expected to lag with 19% penetration in 2012, it should be the leading 3D shipment region by 2014, when most large screen sizes will include 3D capability as a standard feature and North America will be the top region for 40″+ TV shipments.
China became the largest overall TV market in 2009 and the largest LCD TV market in 2011. However, with household flat panel TV penetration reaching high levels in urban areas, growth is expected to slow until rural cities start seeing increased adoption. LCD TV shipments are forecast to grow 11% year on year in China during 2012, down from 17% year on year growth in 2011. Some of the first evidence of this slowdown was seen in recent May Day holiday sales results in China.