Linear programming continues to reign supreme

The vast majority of TV viewing will remain as linear real-time programming through to 2015, despite new technologies and different viewing options available to the consumer, according to the IHS Screen Digest TV Intelligence Service.

In the UK, IHS forecasts that DVR, on-demand and other forms of nonlinear programming will account for only 12.7% of television viewing, up from 7.8% in 2010, with the remainder made up by traditional linear TV watching. Meanwhile in the US these figures are expected to reach 15.8% for nonlinear in 2015, up from 9.9% in 2010.

IHS defines nonlinear television as non-traditional means of viewing that enables place- and timeshifting. This contrasts with traditional linear television, where viewers must watch a scheduled TV program at the time it’s broadcasted, and on the channel it’s presented on.

“The rise of nonlinear television has struck panic into the television industry, with broadcasters dreading the impact of new technologies on their revenue streams,” said Richard Broughton, senior analyst, television, for IHS. “However, even in the leading countries for nonlinear television viewing – the United States and the United Kingdom – linear will account for the vast majority of television viewing through 2015. This means that for the television industry, DVR and on-demand viewing may not be as much of an imminent threat to profitability as feared.

“Linear TV has not stood still as non-linear distribution mechanisms have developed. Alongside the evolution of Internet video and DVR technology, broadcasters have introduced HD channels, now received by more than 40% of U.S. households. In contrast, the Internet in many markets still struggles to cope with HD content and the high bandwidths required for its delivery. Streaming HD remains relatively rare, and downloading takes time, diminishing the appeal for consumers.”