MAGNAGLOBAL revises down DVR forecast

MAGNAGLOBAL has revised down its year-end 2016 forecast for DVR subscriber households to 57.5 million (48.7% of TV households), from 63.1 million in its July 2011 forecast (and compared to 41.2 million – 35.5% of TV households – as of the end of Q2 2011).

“The revisions were mainly based on evidence suggesting some maturation in the DVR market and economic pressure causing subscribers to contain their PayTV cost,” MAGNAGLOBAL said. “The total number of DVR households was also negatively impacted by downward revisions to new household formation growth.”

The group’s newly re-branded Media Access Quarterly report, previously named On-Demand Quarterly, also predicts that, by 2016, nine million households will exclusively rely on over-the-top services for video consumption, without a subscription to traditional multichannel PayTV services.

By 2016, the report expects that video on demand services will reach 65.7 million households (approximately 55.7% of TV households). This compares with 54.8 million VoD households (46.9% of total TV households) at the end of the second quarter.

As of the end of the second quarter of 2011, approximately 85.7 million homes – 72.4% of the total – were online; 91.0% of these homes accessed the internet using broadband service, according to the report.

“Our long-term internet access forecasts call for 97.1 million households to be online in 2016, of which 95.7 million will have broadband services.”