Media predictions? Pass me the revolver.

Newsline columnist Raymond Snoddy explains why Deloitte’s “practical and sensible” predictions for 2010 put them ahead of the pack.

When you see the latest predictions about the future of the media from rich and erudite organisations there is a strong urge to reach for the revolver.

Many strive for attention with apocalyptic visions. Others simply extrapolate into the future in a casual sort of way.

There is one honourable exception, Deloitte’s annual media predictions, now in their ninth year and published yesterday (Tues).

They look at the best possible numbers and talk to top media executives around the world. Then they add a secret ingredient. They engage their brains. This ought to be a commonplace practice but alas, it’s much rarer than you think.

The canvas of course seems limited. Deloitte are, after all, only predicting what is going to happen this year, but they also try to identify the “black swans” about to sail into vision and assess threats posed by disruptive technologies.

Every year they put their choppers on the block and can therefore be judged as a result.

Last year, for instance, Deloitte correctly predicted that 2009 would be the breakthrough year for 3D in the cinema. The only small flaw was that, if anything, they underestimated the strength of the 3D box office.

This year Deloitte makes a number of brave predictions. Up first, the consultants insist that linear television and radio will reign supreme not just this year but for many years to come.

This ought to be a banality but needs restating as many times as necessary until it gets into the brains of the futurologists and technological determinists.

Deloitte estimates, despite the multiplication of new devices, that over 90% of all television watched and 80% of all audio will be consumed via traditional broadcast.

In fact they believe linear’s lead may actually increase this year, thanks to the spread of HD TV and the launch of new channels. Anyway, the most popular content viewed online just happens – surprise, surprise – to be the popular programmes from broadcast.

So how come some wildly wrong perceptions still get peddled by otherwise sentient human beings?

Deloitte suggests two reasons. Many industry executives and their family and friends use the latest devices to bypass television and radio schedules. This is much less common in the mass market.

On top of that consumers lie to market researchers to appear trendy and consistently overstate their consumption of new media and underestimate their use of the traditional. Presumably they want to appear in touch with the latest developments, just as they claim to be gagging for more serious documentaries, operas and news.

The consultants advise that online advertising is likely to continue to grow faster than the advertising market as a whole.

Many advertising buyers believe that online, particularly search, click, social networks and cost per action (CPA) gives “more bang for the buck.”

Far from peaking at a 10% market share, many advertising types think the gains in online could accelerate over the next five years, with obvious implications for traditional media.

Here Deloitte carefully distinguishes between the various media, with newspapers and magazines first in the firing line, radio and outdoor in the middle, and television and speciality TV/cable the most resilient.

“Regardless of the reasons why, this trend (towards online ads) is likely to continue,” say Deloitte, who also warn of the danger of “innovative disruption” in this arena.

What if online advertising turned out to be a truly disruptive technology and hammered traditional advertising on the scale of digital on the photography market – down 90% – or record sales – down 50%?

“In that case, the entire advertising and ad-supported ecosystem would need to consolidate, control costs more aggressively and seek new business models,” the consultants warn.

In the publishing business new business models obviously includes the introduction, or re-introduction, of paywalls and micro-payments.

Deloitte’s take? There will be a mixture of models motivated in most cases not so much by the need to raise revenue, although that will be important, but to reduce the continuing cannibalisation of existing print subscribers.

Also, even though paywalls may cut online readers, sometimes by as much as 90%, more is known about those who remain and they could be more valuable to online advertisers.

Billions of dollars have already been generated by micro-payments “99 cents at a time.”

Deloitte believes that online readers will pay if the content is good enough, but that they are more likely to buy one 99 cent edition rather than 20 articles at 5 cents each.

This year will not, however, be the break-out year for micro-payments because too many barriers still stand in the way, such as lack of standardisation and convenient methods of payment.

Likewise, following a bumper year at the movies for 3D, the first 3D television channels to be launched later this year will face considerable challenges and subscription numbers by year end will be negligible.

This year’s black swan is, interestingly, a new application for very old technology – vending machines.

Deloitte believes that the volume and value of DVD distributed by vending machines will soar, with 30,000 of the machines likely to be deployed in the US alone. Each machine will hold up to 700 titles and be capable of generating up to $50,000 a year.

They may not be flashy or showy predications – merely practical and sensible, something that makes them really stand out.