Merrill Lynch (ML) is raising its global online advertising growth forecast from 24.1% & 17.5% in 2007 and 2008 respectively, to 25.5% and 18.8%.
The financial analyst said that online growth for 2006 came in at around 36%, compared to its previous estimate of 34%, adding that this was driven by international strength in particular.
ML said that based on input from its counterparts in Europe, Japan, China, Brazil, and Australia, its bottom-up build-up of international online advertising growth by major country suggests that online advertising grew 39% internationally in 2006, compared with its estimate of 35%.
ML is now forecasting growth of 29% and 23% in 2007 and 2008 respectively, compared to its previous estimates of 25% and 20%.
| Merrill Lynch Estimates Of International Online Growth By Country |
| |
2003A |
2004A |
2005A |
2006A |
2007E |
2008E |
Merrill Lynch Analyst |
| Australia |
41.3% |
64.4% |
59.8% |
61.5% |
35.0% |
17.5% |
Brett Hucker |
| Brazil |
10.0% |
15.0% |
19.1% |
40.0% |
35.0% |
35.0% |
Michael Kopelman |
| Canada |
34.7% |
53.6% |
54.4% |
42.5% |
30.0% |
25.1% |
Zenith Optimedia |
| China |
110.2% |
71.8% |
76.8% |
45.0% |
40.0% |
35.0% |
Simon Cheung |
| France |
32.3% |
36.6% |
35.2% |
35.1% |
35.0% |
25.0% |
Toby Reeks |
| Germany |
8.4% |
10.2% |
19.9% |
21.0% |
23.0% |
21.1% |
Toby Reeks |
| Italy |
4.0% |
7.8% |
16.2% |
48.0% |
43.6% |
48.5% |
Toby Reeks |
| Japan |
40.0% |
53.3% |
54.8% |
29.3% |
20.0% |
15.0% |
Yoshiyuki Kinoshita |
| South Africa |
9.4% |
126.0% |
5.3% |
7.6% |
5.5% |
20.7% |
Zenith optimedia |
| South Korea |
45.9% |
45.4% |
68.8% |
34.4% |
28.6% |
24.2% |
John Kim |
| Spain |
4.2% |
25.3% |
28.7% |
30.0% |
35.0% |
40.0% |
Toby Reeks |
| Sweden |
6.8% |
16.3% |
28.5% |
31.4% |
22.5% |
18.7% |
Zenith Optimedia |
| United Kingdom |
NM |
102.2% |
65.6% |
46.4% |
31.3% |
22.9% |
Toby Reeks |
| Total International |
66.7% |
55.0% |
53.7% |
38.6% |
28.6% |
22.5% |
|
| Source: Merrill Lynch Equity Research, Zenith Optimedia |
New figures from the Internet Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers show that UK internet advertising expenditure grew 41% in 2006, breaking the £2 billion for the first time (see UK Internet Advertising Spend Grows 41%).
Meanwhile, a recent report from eMarketer said that US marketers will continue to shift their spending into online advertising in 2007 (see US Marketers Will Continue To Move Online).
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