Merrill Lynch Tweaks Advertising Forecasts
Advertising and marketing conditions in the second quarter are shaping up to be similar to Q1, with positive trends in the US whilst elsewhere remains mixed and quite weak, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch.
It has tweaked its US forecasts for 2003 and 2004, following some revisions to the television and newspaper estimates (see Broker Lowers US Newspaper Growth Forecasts). Total US advertising growth is now expected to be 3.2% and 5.7% for this year and next; previously it had forecast 3.1% and 5.9% respectively.
Global forecasts for 2004 have been adjusted from 5.1% to 4.9%; the 2003 forecast of 2.0% remains the same.
| Merrill Lynch Advertising Forecasts | ||||
| ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ |
| ÂÂ | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 |
| Total US | -6.3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 5.7 |
| Total US exc. direct mail | -7.7 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 5.9 |
| Newspaper | -9.4 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 |
| Broadcast television | -13.2 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 6.8 |
| TV networks | -10.0 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 8.0 |
| TV stations | -16.8 | 11.9 | -0.9 | 6.2 |
| Cable | 1.8 | 3.6 | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| Radio | -7.5 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 8.1 |
| Magazine | -7.5 | -3.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| Internet | -11.6 | -5.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 |
| Non-US | -8.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 3.9 |
| Global | -8.2 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 4.9 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch, July 2003 | ||||
Television outlook Merrill Lynch has also reviewed its coverage of the US television sector. It says that despite what look like difficult comparisons with H2 2002, there should only be a modest decline of 0.9% during 2003.
Moving into 2004 stronger and across the board gains are expected, with the industry benefitting from the Olympics, political spending and easier comparisons with H1 2003 as a result of the war in Iraq.
| US Television Advertising Growth Forecasts | ||||
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
| Q1 | -12.1 | 4.3 | 0.3 | – |
| Q2 | -11.9 | 4.4 | -0.8 | – |
| Q3 | -23.9 | 24.6 | -1.2 | – |
| Q4 | -14.8 | 21.4 | -1.6 | – |
| Full year | -15.9 | 13.9 | -0.9 | 6.2 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch, July 2003 | ||||