Mobile Social Networking Revenues Could Reach US$52 billion by 2012
Mobile Social Networking is already an established service in some regions, but in 2008 and beyond new features are attracting larger numbers of users and permitting new business opportunities, according to new research from Informa Telecoms & Media.
Some of these users were registered in multiple mobile communities, engaging with friends, having fun and sharing their passions with others. With only low investments from mobile network operators, the growth in users and community registrations will continue at a CAGR of 30-50%, depending on the type of community and the region, said Informa.
By 2012, there will be between 12.5% penetration of mobile social networks among mobile users globally in the most conservative scenario, approximately 23% in the high growth scenario, said Informa.
“Mobile Social Networking is approaching or has reached critical mass among mobile subscribers in South Korea and Japan,” said Christine Perey, independent analyst, PEREY Research & Consulting, and author of the report. “The US, the Nordic countries and Western Europe are experiencing high growth and other geographies are following.
“Much of the recent additions have been responses to new WAP-based services which offer engaging communities and exciting features with low obstacles to entry. Both off-deck and on-deck, the latest mobile community platforms are providing rich media experiences that users want on their mobile handsets.”
In 2006, mobile social networking revenues exceeded US$1.5 billion and more than doubled in 2007.
The revenue growth will accelerate in the next two years but after that point, much depends on mobile network operators’ policies and the interests of users. By 2012 revenues generated from all business models in this industry is forecast to reach US$28.9 billion in the most conservative scenario and $52 billion in the high growth scenario.
| Global mobile community revenues forecast in three scenarios 2007-2012 | ||||||
| US$ million/year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
| Conservative scenario | ||||||
| North America | 732 | 1,286 | 2,019 | 3,058 | 4,489 | 6,395 |
| Latin America | 35 | 64 | 109 | 184 | 296 | 489 |
| Asia Pacific | 1,664 | 2,739 | 4,075 | 5,931 | 8,517 | 11,896 |
| Europe | 945 | 1,848 | 3,179 | 5,013 | 7,192 | 9,754 |
| AME | 15 | 34 | 67 | 125 | 227 | 402 |
| Total Conservative scenario | 3,392 | 5,972 | 9,449 | 14,311 | 20,721 | 28,936 |
| Middle scenario | ||||||
| North America | 766 | 1,411 | 2,327 | 3,701 | 5,685 | 8,429 |
| Latin America | 36 | 70 | 125 | 220 | 371 | 637 |
| Asia Pacific | 1,740 | 3,003 | 4,686 | 7,143 | 10,704 | 15,522 |
| Europe | 990 | 2,034 | 3,680 | 6,099 | 9,160 | 12,929 |
| AME | 16 | 36 | 74 | 146 | 274 | 505 |
| Total Middle scenario | 3,548 | 6,554 | 10,892 | 17,308 | 26,194 | 38,023 |
| High Growth scenario | ||||||
| North America | 830 | 1,648 | 2,901 | 4,862 | 7,752 | 11,752 |
| Latin America | 39 | 82 | 155 | 290 | 509 | 898 |
| Asia Pacific | 1,867 | 3,436 | 5,673 | 9,053 | 14,040 | 20,837 |
| Europe | 1,073 | 2,376 | 4,587 | 7,998 | 12,447 | 17,934 |
| AME | 17 | 42 | 93 | 194 | 386 | 743 |
| Total High Growth scenario | 3,827 | 7,548 | 13,409 | 22,397 | 35,134 | 52,164 |
| Source: Informa Telecoms & Media | ||||||
The recent MediaTel Group ‘Future of Online’ seminar looked at social networking, with panellists claiming that the dramatic growth the sites have experienced over the past few years will settle, and marketers and advertisers will have to discover the best ways to capitalise on the format (see Social Networking Growth To Settle).
Meanwhile, a recent forecast from Bango predicted that by the third quarter of 2009, more people will access the internet on their mobile than on PC (see More People To Access Internet Via Mobile Than PC).
Mobile advertising is a huge opportunity with the potential to generate in excess of $10 billion in annual revenues by 2010, added Bango.