Jack Myers today reiterated his forecasts for 2002 ad spending saying that “the economic indicators that we study do not look as positive [as other analysts might suggest]”. Myers forecasts that the best-case scenario for ad spending in 2002 is an overall decline of 1.7% and that worst-case sees ad spend falling by 7.4%.
Most likely scenario, says Myers, is a drop of 6%. Following an economic recession Myers claims that advertising normally takes six to nine months to recover although the effect terrorist attacks on the US will have exacerbated the downturn.
Myers first forecast a media recession in April last year (see Forecasts). The refusal of the media industry to believe that a recession was imminent has potentially worsened the decline and cutting costs now, as many companies are, may be too little too late.
Whilst the larger, global media empires may be sufficiently well endowed to cope with the recession Myers forecasts that it is undoubtedly “a catalyst for major changes in the industry”.
