Online advertising forecast to grow 6.9%
Enders Analysis is forecasting a 6.9% increase for internet advertising this year, although newspapers, magazines and television are all expected to experience downturns.
It forecasts a 4% fall in ad revenues for national newspapers this year, reports MediaGuardian.co.uk, with local and regional newspapers predicted to be down 7.9%, although this is a marked improvement on the 26.7% dive it estimates for 2009.
While the recent economic problems faced by the magazine market are seen as more of a symptom of the recession than structural deficiencies, Enders still expects a 6% fall in ad revenues this year.
Television, meanwhile, is predicted to see a 4% fall in ad revenues in 2010.
However, this year is expected to offer big opportunities to content publishers as consumers user their smartphones to access news, with publishers such as the Guardian and Trinity Mirror recently launching iPhone apps.
A long term problem arising from this, though, could be the lack of subscription revenues this format offers, said Enders.
“This trend could accelerate consumption decline. With 15 to 30 minutes to kill [on a journey], that’s when the Times or Guardian came in handy,” says Douglas McCabe of Enders Analysis.
“That iPhone app says, even in that little slot, we are offering you a [subscription] free service.”
In December, research firm Gartner forecast that mobile phone sales will increase 9% year on year in 2010, similar to Nokia’s statement at its Capital Markets Day event in Helsinki earlier in the month that the mobile device market will rise 10% compared to 2009.
Gartner also predicted that smartphone volumes will represent 14% of total mobile device sales in 2009, growing by 23.6% from 2008, and will reach 38% by 2013.