Predictions are difficult, especially about the future
Dominic Mills has a media wishlist for 2015, but what are the odds of any of it actually happening?
So here I am back at the keyboard, a few kilos heavier, burdened by resolutions that have already slipped (get ‘beach fit’; unblock my Twitter account), and wondering what joys 2015 will bring.
Most hacks have a problem at this time of year. Nothing, but nothing, has happened for the last two weeks, so we are forced to delve into the world of fantasy and make predictions. But, to borrow a well-known phrase, predictions, especially about the future, are difficult.
So I’ll leave that to those better equipped than I. Aegis Media’s Dan Calladine does this job brilliantly.
Instead, here is my wishlist for what I would like to happen, each appended by a wild guess at the odds of it actually happening.
1. Someone, somewhere, will prove social media works
Up to now, it’s been just about acceptable to excuse social media’s lack of effectiveness credentials on the grounds that it’s a young medium and it’s all about experimentation rather than hard proof. No more. It’s time to grow up. The medium is getting on for ten years old.
As more money gets chucked at social media, the difficult questions can no longer be ducked. To whom should this task fall? Normally, this would be the province of media owners or social media specialists. But, thanks to Mandy Rice Davies, we know what they will say, so it needs to be someone with no vested interest either way. Come on, research agencies. Time to step up. Or you could go to this IPA event.
Odds: 30:70
2. Start-up agencies
Bloody hell, what would us hacks give for some start-up agencies in 2015. Start-ups are great, not just because they make headlines, but because they re-energise the whole business. A start-up makes waves, and causes everyone else to raise their game. It’s like when a cool new kid suddenly turns up in class – everyone wants to be like them, and is a little bit jealous.
This feels like it could be a fruitful year for start-ups, which flourish when two trends coalesce. One, the economy is in good shape; and two, the big agencies – from whence most start-ups emanate – are bloated, sclerotic and bureaucratic. The result is that ambitious adfolk are frustrated, bored with filling in budget forecasting spreadsheets rather than doing any proper work, and inclined to give it a go.
Odds: 70:30
3. To deter adblocking, ‘content’ will get better
Hmm, well this is a longshot. Increasingly, ‘content’ these days looks like a giant wall, against which marketers throw a load of shit in the vain hope that some of it will stick. Indeed, one Nokia executive last year memorably described his task thus: “We crap out shitloads of content on a daily basis.”
Given the fate of Nokia, it’s clear that none of its content stuck to anything.
Nevertheless, getting it right matters, and not just because content is an increasingly important part of the marketer’s toolbox.
It’s because it may be the key to solving the problem of adblocking, which is growing and isn’t going away anytime soon.
Odds: low
4. Blimey, Big Data actually works
Another way to solve the adblocking issue is to serve users with the right ads, at the right time, and in the right context – the so-called ‘Holy Trinity’. This is where Big Data comes in. Handled correctly, it can do the business.
As an industry, we talk the talk. And I believe in its potential, I really do. It’s just that the evidence of my own eyes says it’s not working yet. Come on readers, when was the last time you saw an ad that made you go ‘Bingo! That’s what I need’? Answer: rarely, and that’s not even counting the ghastly retargeting ads that are everywhere.
Last Sunday morning, for example, as I was writing this column, I watched a music video (ok, it was a distraction) on which appeared an ad for LED bulbs. Huh? Another ad sought to tell me about Yorskhire Data Centre’s ‘secure managed hosting racks system’. I don’t even know what that means, so no cigars there.
Odds that Big Data will noticeably improve targeting: 3:97
5. Consolidation in the programmatic zone
When Depression Era gangster Willie Sutton was asked by the FBI why he robbed banks, he replied: “Because that’s where the money is.”
In 2015, Sutton’s Law applies to anybody operating in the programmatic space. As anybody who has studied the Lumascape charts can tell you, it’s a mess – i.e. ripe for the picking. There are thousands of operators out there, and the lines – buyer/seller/DSP/DMP/SSP/network/exchange and so on – are increasingly blurring.
It is adland’s worst-kept secret, but everyone knows each player takes a slice of the budget as it passes along the programmatic chain, such that when it gets to the publisher there’s bugger all left.
This means there’s lots of money sloshing around, and the rewards for owning more parts of the chain are thus commensurately enhanced. Many of these players are VC-backed, and therefore always open to (good) offers.
The trick, though, will be make sure the process of allocating budgets to programmatic is never ‘simplified’. That’s when the gravy train will hit the buffers. The more complicated it is, the more the mystery. And mystery and margin go hand in hand.
Odds: 99:1
6. New money enters the eco-system
If you’re a small or medium-sized agency, especially with a tech bias or if it looks like you’ve got some shiny new toys, this could be the year you strike it rich.
Maybe this will be because you get loads of clients. But it is just as likely to be because some rich new player determined to make a mark on adland sweeps in with loads of money. This could be the South Koreans in the form of Cheil (essentially part of the Samsung chaebol or conglomerate), which last year bought Iris.
Or it could be the Chinese. Last year Blue Focus, a sort of mini Chinese WPP, bought We are Social and the Huntsworth group of PR agencies. According to the FT, it has $300m to invest in overseas agencies.
Don’t forget the Japanese either, whether Dentsu, or its less well-known rival Hakuhodo, which has appointed Michael Birkin, a former Omnicom corporate cheese, to head up its expansion efforts.
Who else? Well, judging by the number of agency acquisitions Communisis – formerly a print manager, now handily reinvented as ‘a multi-channel communication specialist’ – has made in the last year, there are still UK-based companies with ambitions to become mini-congloms.
And we’ve had companies with Hollywood-style interests in entertainment and leisure taking stakes in agencies like Droga 5 and Engine, so there could be more where that came from.
To me, new money is a good thing. One, it adds flavour, colour and much-needed counter-balance to a world dominated by the holding companies; and two, it brings in new thinking, new approaches and new ideas. And that ain’t a bad thing.
Odds: 80:20
I’ll leave you with one of my favourite sayings about forecasting: “If you have to forecast, forecast often.” On that basis, I may be back with more.