RAJAR: An Analyst’s View – Radio’s Failure To Predict The Future; It Was All Too Predictable…

Andrew Freeman, senior consultant, media research at Harris Interactive, discusses the latest RAJAR figures and looks at what can be learnt from past predictions…

I remember ten years ago the then director of programming at what was Capital Radio Group laid out his vision for the future. He showed us how the newly acquired Xfm would topple the then Capital Gold from its second place in London, forming the new “must buy” brand to accompany the undisputed market leader Capital FM. But I suspect we were never quite as happy, optimistic, and frankly chuffed with ourselves then as Bauer’s executives were last week.

OK, so we’re bad at predicting the future; but there was more than just bad forecasting behind the failure of those predictions. There was an unstated assumption that radio already encompassed everyone equally, which turned out to be radically flawed. And there was an unacknowledged threat from the internet, which was (and often still is) seen as little more than revenue-generating brochure-ware for the radio brand. Knowing about these two assumptions will tell you more about the current state of the radio market than much of the data.

The first then was the universality of radio. The RAB talked a lot about the “commercial radio generation”, but acted as if it were merely the vanguard of an enlightened age. As it turns out, the “commercial radio generation” was exactly that: a cohort of people who loved what they grew up with; people like me for whom radio will always be Tarrant at Breakfast, Steve Wright in the afternoon during long school summer holidays, and Foxy’s jukebox after the Pepsi Chart Show. No doubt in the same way my kids will love You Tube or Google, or Facebook, or some other behemoth that, by the time they are my age, will be a fading star also wondering where all its young fans went.

Radio’s failure to understand the internet has been equally damaging, although in large part radio is merely the hapless victim of a spectacular act of self destruction by the music industry. The BBC’s speech-based brands put it light years ahead in engaging with its audiences. The BBC programmes you love can be tuned into anywhere, downloaded onto your iPod or mobile phone, and replayed to your heart’s content. Not so the programmes on commercial radio. Because of their music content, the protracted rights issues have set commercial radio back years, and made it seem as outmoded as VHS; reliant on an analogue technology in a specialised box.

Knowing these two things, what might one expect from the current figures, and what can one read from them into the future? Well the first is that we would expect the brands that unashamedly target the “commercial radio generation” to do better than those that chase the youth audience. Step forward Magic FM – breaking through the psychologically important two million listener barrier, and achieving a record share. Even Kiss, lambasted by some for widening its appeal (to include such old duffers as me), has grown share in what has been an otherwise declining London market. You might also expect that, in view of Magic’s nature as a female-friendly listen, that there might be quite a lot of men looking for a station that they can tune to without the risk of yet another ballad from Westlife. Step forward then a whole raft of DAB brands such as Planet Rock, Virgin Classic Rock and Virgin Extreme. Even the Arrow (broadcast only on DTV) shows an increase in reach.

And that leads us to the second issue; how technology is helping a younger generation rediscover radio. Listening via mobile phones is on the increase – and that seems as likely to be listening to streaming brands and podcasts as the traditional analogue FM “wave the headphone cable around to try to get a better signal” style of listening. And the web has been active in other ways: Web 2.0 has been tried in radio with Xfm’s disastrous XU concept (and in fact before that by LBC’s shortlived and best forgotten attempt to turn the airwaves over to its listeners). Both experiments prove conclusively that (as a quick glance at YouTube would have confirmed) the vast majority of user-generated content is not fit for broadcast. But once again, there is a station that has caught the mood of the moment by asking its listeners to interact by uploading picture that show how they FEEL when they tune in. That became Magic’s marketing campaign; created raw by the audience to explain the brand to non-listeners, or to reinforce the positives among light listeners.

Radio may not seem like rocket science, but good radio, in a massively competitive context, can be hugely difficult. Technology seems like it might provide an answer, but applied wrong, it can do more harm than good. As we can see from this quarter’s figures, when you get the basics right; when you know our target market; when you use the internet not to reinvent radio, but to put people closer to your brand; when you get all that right, the result can be Magic indeed.

And my prediction for the future…? Expect it all to change again.

Harris Interactive: www.harrisinteractive.com