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Read the ads to know the odds-on outcome of the US Election

Read the ads to know the odds-on outcome of the US Election


Media commentators across all forms of media are filling time and space with analysis and minute-by-minute coverage of the US Election. Moreover, the British media report that the result is too close to call.

Are the news media trying to hype up the excitement, when in fact; the contest is not as close as they purport? Or are they trying to scare us Obama loving Brits with the possibility of a Romney win – a Harris Interactive pole in Metro reports that even UK Tories would vote for Obama and #VoteObama is trending on Twitter in the UK?

Or are they just trying to fill the airwaves and column inches?

Now I may be proved wrong – and I often am – but Barack Obama looks ‘nailed-on’ to be returned to the Whitehouse. Why? The bookmakers have cut Obama’s odds even further from 1/5 on to 1/6 on. For those not familiar with the odds, the bookies want you to risk £6 for the chance to win a solitary £1.

PaddyPower announced yesterday they were ‘paying out’ already on an Obama win – to the tune of a £400,000 loss but lots of media coverage in return!

So, to really get the inside track on how close it is, read the newspaper advertisements from the gambling industry. The money is coming for Obama. And not to exclude the market research industry, YouGov have claimed in today’s City A.M. that voter systems would have to be ‘systematically wrong’ to allow a Romney victory.

So the gambling and market research industries seemed to have called it right yet the news media still hype the close finish.

Tuesday, 6 November 2012, 14:45 GMT

Hang on, you’re overlooking the so-called ‘Redskins Rule’, under which the candidate from the party that received the most votes for president in the prior election will win the presidency if the Redskins win their final home game before the election. If the Redskins lose – as they did to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday – the candidate from the other party would claim election victory. Apparently it has never failed. So that guarantees a Romney win apparently. What odds would you have got on a Redskins loss AND Obama win, Mr Corke?

Neil Sharman
head of research and analysis
Telegraph Media Group

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