Sky and Virgin Media forecast to lose 1.6 million TV subs

The UK’s major pay-TV companies Sky and Virgin Media are forecast to lose one-sixth of their combined subscriber base over the next five years as streaming becomes more popular across Western Europe.

The region will lose 7 million pay TV subscriptions by 2027 to fall to 100 million, according to a new forecast by Digital TV Research.

Within this projection, the UK is expected to lose 1.4 million subs to 13 million in 2017.

More Digital TV Research figures seen by The Media Leader show that Sky TV’s subscription count will drop by 19% over six years – from 7.83 million subs in 2021 to 6.36 million in 2027.

Meanwhile, Virgin Media TV subs will fall more modestly by 5% from 3.40 million subs in 2021 to 3.24 million in 2027.

That would be a total decrease of 1.6 million subscribers over the period for the two companies – a 17% decline.

IPTV, or TV distribution via DSL or fibre, is projected to overtake satellite TV in 2026 to become the most lucrative platform across the region.

Pay TV revenues are expected to decline by $5bn (18%) between 2021 and 2027 to $22bn, while pay TV subscriber count is expected to drop by 7%.

Sky, owned by US media giant Comcast, does not give official subscriber numbers for its pay-TV service in isolation. In Comcast’s latest financial earnings, the company said Sky had increased its “total customer relationships” to 23.03 million in the fourth quarter of 2021.

As well as subscription TV, Sky offers broadband, mobile network, and NOW TV video-on-demand services.

Virgin Media, which completed a merger with mobile operator O2 last year, reported 5.8m “fixed line customers” in the fourth quarter of 2021 (up 52,700).