Freeview, the BBC backed free-to-air digital television service, will be the fastest growing platform until 2005, according to new research, however, this will not be enough to knock Sky from the top-spot as the most dominant force in the UK multichannel television market.
Continental Research’s
Autumn 2004 Digital TV Report said that over the next year, Freeview is expected to add another 1.4 million customers, bringing its base to just under 5 million, while Sky is expected to reach its target set by chief executive James Murdoch, of 8 million customers.
The popularity of personal-video-recorders (PVR) are also expected to take off in the next few years, with Continental Research predicting that 525,000 homes will purchase a PVR in the next 12 months.
Previously, Murdoch has said he would like to see 10 million Sky subscribers by 2010, with 25% of them subscribing to Sky’s PVR, Sky Plus. Once again, it looks like Murdoch’s dreams are within reach, as already there are 450,000 UK homes with a PVR, 4000,00 of which have Sky Plus.
| Digital TV Market Forecasts (Millions) |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
Freeview |
Sky Digital |
Digital Cable |
Digital Total* |
| Current Market |
3.5 |
7.4 |
2.6 |
13.4 |
| Certain/Very/Quite Likely |
1.4 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
2.5 |
| Longer Term Potential |
4.9 |
7.9 |
3.3 |
15.9 |
| Source: Continental Research, September 2004 |
Continental said, its Freeview forecasts could turn out to be an understatement, as a number of Sky digital and cable homes are expected to cancel their subscriptions in favour of the free-to-air service.
According to the research group, the overall potential for digital television penetration will grow from 45% of all homes in 2003 to around 66% (15.9 million) over the next few years, leaving the market some way to go to reach the 95% target set by the government for analogue switch-off.
The report also said that digital television viewers are more positive about advertising, with new and creative commercials appealing more to them than terrestrial viewers.
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