Smartphone shipments to reach almost 2 billion by 2017

Global smartphone shipments are forecast to reach 1.8 billion in 2017, accounting for 82% of total mobile phone handset shipments. This is up from 55% in Q3 2013, according to the latest NPD DisplaySearch.

The results forecast that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for smartphones over the next five years will reach 21%, while feature phones will decline at a CAGR of 16%.

According to NPD, the majority of smartphone growth will come from the Asia-Pacific region – particularly China, which is forecast to grow 63% in 2013 and expected to comprise 30% of the smartphone market by 2017.

The most popular screen sizes through 2017 are expected to be 4″ to 4.9″ displays, although screens larger than 5″ will account for almost 40% of total smartphone shipments.

As worldwide network speeds increase, 4G smartphones are expected to continue to penetrate more of the market, reaching an estimated 41% of smartphone shipments in 2017. However, NPD states that because of the economics of scale, 3G high-speed packet access will continue to be the dominant technology, accounting for 51% of the market in 2017.

“Smartphone market growth is being fuelled by entry-level smartphones from international brands and white-box vendors in emerging markets,” said Tina Teng, senior analyst for smartphones at NPD DisplaySearch.

“We expect aggressive pricing moves to continue, prompting first-time smartphone buyers to upgrade earlier.”