The sad truth about leaders’ debates
Leaders’ debates on UK TV died in the 2010 general election when Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg emerged from the shadows to effectively upstage David Cameron, writes Raymond Snoddy
One of the most exciting issues in the accelerating general election campaign has been – will he, won’t he.
For some time the official position has been clear: Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will not appear on the BBC’s Election Debate from Cambridge because Prime Minister Theresa May has always been a non-starter.
Now, a late decision to turn up – fresh from his survival in the preliminary skirmish with Paxman – could wrong-foot the Conservatives.
With the latest opinion polls turning up the heat a notch or two, the time has come for Corbyn to risk all and take advantage of the missing Prime Minister. Even though the BBC has kindly decided to avoid putting out the empty chair to avoid embarrassing the PM, an absent May could still amount to an eloquent statement that could be exploited.
In May’s place Home Secretary Amber Rudd will be representing the Tories.
Ducking the debate might have appeared a fine decision for Corbyn advisers following their man’s embarrassing inability to come up with the cost of Labour’s child-care proposals on Woman’s Hour, followed by an indifferent “fluffy” performance on Mumsnet.
The real problem for broadcasters is that Theresa May’s decision to avoid a face-to-face debate with the Labour leader sucks most of the life – and the ratings – out of election programmes.
Staged and phased interviews are all very well but it’s the red meat of live gladiatorial combat that really turns the dial.
Not even Paxman could score more than 2.9 million with his Channel 4/Sky election special featuring Corbyn and May. By comparison, Britain’s Got Talent pulled in 8.5 million on ITV.
The ratings tariff on televised electoral politics is ruthless. Throw on the also-ran leaders for a debate and the result is likely to be an audience of 1-2 million.
If you want to reach the giddy heights of broadcast politics – audiences of 9-10 million – then only the real thing will do.
We probably have Theresa May’s chief strategist Sir Lynton Crosby to thank for putting the kibosh on full-blooded presidential style debates in Britain.
Never mind democracy, or putting yourself and your policies before the scrutiny of the greatest number of people possible, the political rule of thumb is simple. If an incumbent leader is ahead in the polls why give the suckers of the opposition an even break. You might get a few crude jeers but you ride that out in a confident manner with your nose firmly above the fray.
And besides, Theresa May is not actually very good at live debates once she is removed from the comfort blankets of stock lines.
The sad truth is that leaders’ debates on UK television died in the general election before last when Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg emerged from the shadows to effectively upstage David Cameron.
There’s far too much damned equality.
Clegg’s performance was a factor at least in Cameron being denied an overall majority and having to accept the Lib Dem leader as deputy Prime Minister in a coalition Government.
The lesson was learned and a British Prime Minister will now only willingly embrace the broadcasters in future if their back is against the wall and it’s time for a final throw of the dice.
Despite the casting problems for the main show, broadcasting is having an effect on an election as the gap between the main parties narrows.
The really big audiences may be missing but the Cambridge “debate” followed by the BBC Question Time election special in York will still have a powerful impact.
The clips of the best bits will be repeated endlessly on air and online and the newspapers will call the winners and losers.
The top drama will be missing but the megaphone effect of broadcasting will help to shape perceptions and compensate for the national newspaper imbalance in favour of the Conservatives.
So far some of the main plaudits must go to radio and the way that tenacious interviewers have been able to skewer the levels of competence – or the lack of it – of senior, experienced politicians.
In fact this has already been the election of the “car-crash” interview and with eight days to go the opportunities remain considerable.
Will anyone ever forget, thanks to the nimble-minded Nick Ferrari on LBC, how the would-be Home Secretary of this country, Diane Abbott, hadn’t got the faintest how much 10,000 extra police would cost and seemed to be challenged by simple sums.
Emily Thornberry is convinced that Britain’s food industry will be unable to export to Australia because the food “will go off.”
In a second stab at the issue she said she had been talking about processed foods that have to be sold “pretty immediately.”
The ultimate car crash interview – because it was with a man who could be Prime Minister come Friday week – was Jeremy Corbyn on Woman’s Hour with Emma Barnett.
The answers to a simple question must now be engraved on his heart.
Barnett: How much will it cost to provide non means-tested child care for 1.3 million children?
Corbyn: Erm…it will cost…erm…it will obviously cost a lot to do so, we accept that…
The Labour leader didn’t have the time to check his iPad for the figure. That’s the joy of live radio.
The winning rosette at this stage has to go to Andrew Neil for his Leader Interviews. The ones so far have shown Neil to be superbly well briefed – he knew exactly how many IRA-supporting meetings Corbyn had attended over the years – with just the right degree of firmness and persistence.
The order of the boot also goes to a Corbyn interviewer – Jeremy Paxman who interrupted endlessly and needlessly and stuck grimly to a single fixed idea – the apparent disparity between Corbyn’s personal views and the Labour manifesto: Corbyn abolishing the monarchy for goodness’ sake.
No matter who appears in the debates, overall broadcasters have got a grip this time and are doing a better job of challenging politicians than they ever did during the referendum campaign.