Total UK advertising spend is set to fall by nearly 6% year on year in 2009, the worst of any developed country, according to a new GroupM forecast.
UK national newspaper advertising is forecast to be down 12% year on year in 2009, regional titles down 13%, and the business-to-business magazine sector down 14%.
TV advertising is predicted to fall 6% year on year, in line with the overall downturn in total ad revenue next year, while radio ads will be down 8% and consumer magazines down 8.5%.
A recent forecast from ZenithOptimedia said that UK TV ad spend would fall by 6% this year and 3% in 2009 (see UK TV ad spend to fall this year and next).
| GroupM UK Ad Spend Forecast |
| £, net |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008f |
2009f |
| TV |
3,569 |
3,423 |
3,500 |
3,298 |
3,100 |
| Radio |
443 |
408 |
422 |
384 |
353 |
| National newspapers |
1,626 |
1,626 |
1,639 |
1,504 |
1,330 |
| Regional newspapers |
2,545 |
2,365 |
2,335 |
1,888 |
1,640 |
| Consumer magazines |
703 |
690 |
672 |
621 |
568 |
| B2B magazines |
904 |
864 |
823 |
757 |
651 |
| Outdoor |
729 |
759 |
797 |
750 |
735 |
| Cinema (includes production) |
160 |
160 |
176 |
181 |
181 |
| Internet |
1,149 |
1,946 |
2,646 |
3,231 |
3,350 |
| Total |
11,827 |
12,241 |
13,010 |
12,615 |
11,908 |
| GroupM UK Ad Spend Forecast, YoY % change |
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008f |
2009f |
| TV |
3.2% |
-4.1% |
2.2% |
-5.8% |
-6.0% |
| Radio |
-4.3% |
-7.8% |
3.4% |
-9.0% |
-8.0% |
| National newspapers |
-3.1% |
0.0% |
0.8% |
-8.2% |
-11.6% |
| Regional newspapers |
-4.4% |
-7.1% |
-1.3% |
-19.1% |
-13.2% |
| Consumer magazines |
1.0% |
-1.8% |
-2.6% |
-7.6% |
-8.5% |
| B2B magazines |
-1.7% |
-4.4% |
-4.7% |
-8.0% |
-14.0% |
| Outdoor |
7.4% |
4.2% |
5.0% |
-5.8% |
-2.0% |
| Cinema (includes production) |
-2.1% |
0.0% |
10.1% |
3.0% |
-0.1% |
| Internet |
63.8% |
69.4% |
36.0% |
22.1% |
3.7% |
| Total |
3.6% |
3.5% |
6.3% |
-3.0% |
-5.6% |
GroupM, WPP’s media buying subsidiary, has downgraded its 2008 total UK ad spend forecast from growth of 4%, reported in May, to a decline of 3%.
It has also revised down its forecast of 3% growth in total UK ad spend in 2009 to a fall of 5.6%.
Traditional media, not including figures for internet ad spend, is predicted to be down 10% year on year in 2008 and 9% in 2009.
The growth rate for internet ad spending in 2009 has been revised down as well, from 20% to just 4%.
However, public relations will see 2% growth in revenue and market research will see a 1.8% rise.
GroupM said that it now expects zero growth in global ad spend in 2009, down from its earlier forecast of 5% growth year on year.
A report by Enders Analysis published in November predicted that total UK ad spend would fall by 12% in 2009, before returning to growth of 9.3% in 2010 (see UK ad spend to fall by 12% in 2009).
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