The downturn in advertising spend in the US has reached its bottom and is now recovering, Jack Myers quotes JPMorgan analyst Spencer Wang as saying this week.
In the
Jack Myers Report, Wang is said to be relatively cautious in the short-term, but believes that the long-term fundamentals for media companies remain intact.
Looking at US local TV advertising, Wang notes that political spend accounted for 58% of growth in 2002; traditionally, it boosts spend by between 10% and 30%. This means that local television stations are going to have to find growth from other categories if they are to show cotinued advertising recovery in 2003, says Myers.
Wang forecasts that overall US adspend will grow 3% to 4% in 2003, which is consistent with Jack Myers Report forecasts of 2.8% growth (see Myers Is Positive Over US Adspend, 2.8% 2003 Growth Predicted), but is more conservative than forecasts from ZenithOptimedia (see ZenithOptimedia Downgrades European Ad Forecasts) and Universal McCann (see Universal McCann Expert Upbeat On Ad Prospects).
The latest US advertising forecasts comparisons, compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT, are shown here.
