The tentative advertising recovery in the US is continuing, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch. However, growth is not strong and universal; rather, there are fits and starts between the different media, with share of adspend being moved around between them.
The broker says that television and cable network advertising currently seems to be drawing revenue from other media. As a result, an analysis of TV spend will paint a brighter picture of recovery than is likely to be the case. Even so, TV revenues were fairly flat in Q2 as they started to come up against comparisons with political spending a year ago. June was slightly below expectations.
Merrill Lynch recently tweaked its advertising forecasts, raising 2003 growth from 3.1% to 3.2% and reducing 2004 from 5.9% to 5.7%. Global forecasts for 2004 were adjusted from 5.1% to 4.9%; 2003 was held at 2.0% (see Merrill Lynch Tweaks Advertising Forecasts).
The only adjustment to these forecasts in the broker’s latest assessment is to bring radio’s 2003 growth prediction down from 3.3% to 2.7%. This is the result of a reduction in Q3 and Q4 expectations, from 4.3% and 4.3% to 2.7% and 3.3% respectively.
In summary, analysts say that the US recovery theme remains the same, that is to say – slow, with erratic variations between the relative media.
For a collection of all the latest advertising forecasts click here.
