US advertising spending is forecast to drop 12% in 2009, although there may be somewhat of a levelling off in 2010, according to a recent Media Business Report from Jack Myers.com Media Network.
The Myers report predicts a double-digit drop in total ad spending in 2009, following a 4% decline last year. This decline is predicted to carry into 2010, with a 5% dip for the full year.
Newspaper advertising is predicted to see a 22.5% decline, following a 17% drop last year.
Myers projects that among the brightest spots will be video game and mobile advertising, which will grow 12% and 9% this year, respectively. Other resilient categories include online video/social networks (8.6%), online search (7%), branded entertainment/product placement (4%) and satellite radio (3%).
Myers’ projections are based on fourth quarter 2008 and first quarter 2009 spending, GDP data and a study of the top 100 advertisers by Goldman Sachs, as well as industry analysis.
A recent Nielsen report found that US ad spend for 2008 was down 2.6% compared to 2007, with preliminary figures putting the total at $136.8 billion last year (see US ad spend down 2.6% in 2008).
Hispanic cable TV and cable TV were the only two media to show ad growth in 2008, of 9.6% and 7.8% respectively, said Nielsen.
In the UK, adspend fell by 3.9% in 2008, and was down 9.6% year on year in the fourth quarter, according to research from the World Advertising Research Center (WARC) carried out for the Advertising Association.
Newspapers grabbed a 25% share of total adspend last year, said WARC, just ahead of TV with 23%, while the internet now commands a 20% share (see UK adspend fell 3.9% in 2008).
