US Advertising Forecasts From Jack Myers Report
Stronger than expected TV upfronts have encouraged Jack Myers to issue a slightly more positive forecast for advertising growth in 2002. However, the recovery is predicted to be slow and protracted.
Jack Myers Report calculates that US adspend will total $155.6 million this year, an increase of 1% on the 2001 total. Spot TV is set to undergo 8% growth and the radio industry can also expect a boost in revenues. However, the press and online sectors are still embedded in recession.
Myers forecasts overall growth of 2.3% for 2003 and 4.6% for 2004. Despite its depressed state, newspaper advertising will continue to account for over a quarter of all revenues.
| US Advertising Spend, Share And Growth Forecasts, By Medium | |||||||||
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |||||||
| Media | % Growth | $ (million) | % Share | % Growth | $ (million) | % Share | % Growth | $ (million) | % Share |
| Newspapers | -2.0 | 43,414 | 27.9 | 0.0 | 43,414 | 27.3 | 3.0 | 44,716 | 26.9 |
| Broadcast Networks | 1.0 | 16,281 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 16,770 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 17,440 | 10.5 |
| Local & National Spot TV | 8.0 | 20,601 | 13.2 | 3.0 | 21,219 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 22,704 | 13.6 |
| Broadcast Syndication | 6.0 | 2,719 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 2,828 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2,912 | 1.7 |
| Radio | 3.5 | 19,044 | 12.2 | 3.0 | 19,615 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 20,792 | 12.5 |
| Yellow Pages | 3.0 | 13,977 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 14,117 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 14,117 | 8.5 |
| Magazines | -5.0 | 15,402 | 9.9 | 2.0 | 15,710 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 16,182 | 9.7 |
| Network Cable TV | 2.5 | 10,824 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 11,690 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 12,391 | 7.4 |
| Local/Regional Cable TV | 10.0 | 4,221 | 2.7 | 12.0 | 4,727 | 3.0 | 14.0 | 5,389 | 3.2 |
| Online | -8.0 | 3,956 | 2.5 | -3.0 | 3,837 | 2.4 | 15.0 | 4,413 | 2.7 |
| Outdoor | 1.0 | 5,186 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 5,238 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 5,395 | 3.2 |
| Total | 1.0 | 155,626 | 100.0 | 2.3 | 159,166 | 100.0 | 4.6 | 166,453 | 100.0 |
| Source: Jack Myers Report, October 2002 | |||||||||
