US Advertising Growth Comparisons From eMarketer
After compiling and analysing a broad selection of other high-profile predictions, eMarketer is forecasting that US advertising spend will grow by 4.7% in 2003.
These comparative figures are shown below. It should be noted, however, that forecasters do not necessarily produce their figures on the same basis. In this selection all the data include TV, radio, magazines, newspapers, outdoor and internet (except for Jupiter, which does not include outdoor).
In addition, JP Morgan includes direct mail and ‘other’; Jupiter includes yellow pages, direct mail and ‘other’; Myers includes yellow pages; Universal McCann includes direct mail, yellow pages and ‘miscellaneous’; Veronis includes yellow pages and Zenith includes cinema.
eMarketer also notes that whilst the majority of marketers revise their budgets on an annual basis, some re-evaluate marketing plans as frequently as once a month. This means that all forecasts must be open to a degree of flexible re-interpretation.
| Comparisons Of US Advertising Growth Forecasts | ||||
| Growth (%) | ||||
| Group | Date | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
| Merrill Lynch | Jan-03 | 4.0 | – | – |
| JP Morgan | Aug-02 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| Universal McCann | Dec-02 | 5.0 | – | – |
| eMarketer | Dec-02 | 4.7 | – | – |
| Standard & Poor’s | Aug-02 | 5.1 | – | – |
| Jupiter Research | Oct-02 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 4.6 |
| Global Insight | Nov-02 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| Veronis Suhler | Jul-02 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 5.9 |
| Myers Group | Dec-02 | 2.8 | 4.1 | – |
| Zenith Optimedia | Dec-02 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| CMR | Jan-03 | 3.3 | – | – |
| Source: eMarketer, updates from MediaTelINSIGHT | ||||
