US advertising spending is expected to rise by 9.3% to $140.3 billion this year, according to the mid-year forecast from TNS Media Intelligence/CMR.
The AdWatch: Outlook 2004 report presented in conjunction with Advertising Age says that the first half of 2004 will rise by 9.4% compared with the second half which will rise by 9.2%, while the fourth quarter is expected to slow down to 7.7%.
2004 Quarterly Growth Trends
Time Period
Change Versus 2003
First Half 2004
9.4% (e)
1st Quarter 2004
9.6%
2nd Quarter 2004
9.3% (e)
Second Half 2004
9.2% (e)
3rd Quarter 2004
10.9% (e)
4th Quarter 2004
7.7% (e)
Full Year 2004
9.3% (e)
Source: TNS Media Intelligence/CMR
(e) = Estimate
The two drivers for this year are the Presidential Elections and the Olympics. Estimates are that political spending will total $1.5 billion in 2004, with $1.3 billion being spent on the elections and $200 million being spent on issue-related adverts. Olympic spending will contribute an incremental $850 million, an increase of $100 million over advertising spending surrounding the 2000 Sydney games. Overall, these two areas will make significant contributions to third quarter spending.
All TNS Media Intelligence/CMR measured media, with the exception of business-to-business magazines, are expected to show growth for 2004. Internet is expected to be the fastest growing medium sector, rising by 15.8 percent for the year.
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