US advertising spending is expected to rise by 9.3% to $140.3 billion this year, according to the mid-year forecast from TNS Media Intelligence/CMR.
The
AdWatch: Outlook 2004 report presented in conjunction with Advertising Age says that the first half of 2004 will rise by 9.4% compared with the second half which will rise by 9.2%, while the fourth quarter is expected to slow down to 7.7%.
| 2004 Quarterly Growth Trends |
| |
|
| Time Period |
Change Versus 2003 |
| First Half 2004 |
9.4% (e) |
| 1st Quarter 2004 |
9.6% |
| 2nd Quarter 2004 |
9.3% (e) |
| Second Half 2004 |
9.2% (e) |
| 3rd Quarter 2004 |
10.9% (e) |
| 4th Quarter 2004 |
7.7% (e) |
| Full Year 2004 |
9.3% (e) |
| |
|
| Source: TNS Media Intelligence/CMR |
| (e) = Estimate |
|
The two drivers for this year are the Presidential Elections and the Olympics. Estimates are that political spending will total $1.5 billion in 2004, with $1.3 billion being spent on the elections and $200 million being spent on issue-related adverts. Olympic spending will contribute an incremental $850 million, an increase of $100 million over advertising spending surrounding the 2000 Sydney games. Overall, these two areas will make significant contributions to third quarter spending.
All TNS Media Intelligence/CMR measured media, with the exception of business-to-business magazines, are expected to show growth for 2004. Internet is expected to be the fastest growing medium sector, rising by 15.8 percent for the year.
| Growth Estimates For 2004 By Individual Media |
| |
|
| Media |
Percent Estimate |
| Internet |
15.8% |
| Spot TV |
14.3% |
| Radio |
11.5% |
| Cable Network TV |
9.9% |
| Network TV |
9.8% |
| Syndication |
9.8% |
| Outdoor |
8.4% |
| Spanish Language TV |
7.0% |
| Magazines (Consumer and Sunday) |
6.4% |
| Newspapers (National and Local) |
6.4% |
| Magazines (Business to Business) |
-1% |
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