US Ecommerce Forecasts From eMarketer
US online retail will hit $88.1 billion by 2005, whilst total US business-to-consumer (B2C) ecommerce revenues will hit $133.3 billion by this time, according to a new report from eMarketer.
The report predicts that by 2005, 66.7% of the population aged 14-plus will be online and 78.0% of these will be using the web for shopping. Each online buyer will spend an average of $928 per year by this time, up from $564 in 2000.
| US Internet Users And Retail Forecasts | ||||||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | |
| Internet users (million) | ||||||
| Total internet users | 124.0 | 142.8 | 152.8 | 162.0 | 168.0 | 171.4 |
| Internet users aged 14+ | 102.9 | 120.0 | 131.4 | 139.3 | 144.5 | 155.3 |
| Online penetration of population aged 14+ | 46.5% | 53.8% | 58.2% | 61.1% | 62.7% | 66.7% |
| Shoppers (million) | ||||||
| % of internet users aged 14+ | 65.0% | 67.0% | 71.0% | 73.0% | 75.0% | 78.0% |
| Shoppers aged 14+ | 66.9 | 80.4 | 93.3 | 101.7 | 108.4 | 121.1 |
| Buyers (million) | ||||||
| % of internet users aged 14+ | 48.5% | 53.2% | 55.8% | 58.3% | 59.9% | 61.8% |
| Buyers aged 14+ | 49.9 | 63.8 | 73.3 | 81.2 | 86.5 | 94.9 |
| Average annual spend per buyer | $563.99 | $538.78 | $621.06 | $677.76 | $838.87 | $928.00 |
| Online retail sales (million) | ||||||
| Retail revenues | $28,152 | $34,382 | $45,540 | $55,034 | $72,599 | $88,103 |
| Online travel revenues | $13,400 | $17,200 | $24,800 | $31,900 | $37,100 | $45,200 |
| Total B2C ecommerce revenues | $41,552 | $51,582 | $70,340 | $86,934 | $109,699 | $133,303 |
| Source: eMarketer, October 2003 | ||||||
The holiday boon The report also predicts that US consumers will spend almost $18 billion buying good and services online in the final quarter of the year – a rise of 29.1% year on year.
The holiday season has historically been a peak period for online retail, with Q4 sales having grown from just $5.4 billion in 1999 to $13.8 billion in 2002.
This year ecommerce is expected to hit $17.8 billion for the period. By comparison, Q3 sales totalled $12.4 billion, according to figures from BizRate (see Consumer Online Spending Grows In Third Quarter).
| US Q4 Online Retail Sales | ||
| Sales (million) | YoY Growth (%) | |
| 1999 | $5,393 | – |
| 2000 | $9,248 | 71.5 |
| 2001 | $10,788 | 16.7 |
| 2002 | $13,770 | 27.6 |
| 2003F | $17,776 | 29.1 |
| Source: eMarketer, October 2003 | ||