Domestic US revenue for interactive TV advertising, commerce and subscriptions is unlikely to surpass $400 million this year, a figure well below other industry forecasters, according to The Future of T-Commerce, a new Myers report.
The Myers Mediaenomics report predicts that interactive TV will find deployment ‘difficult’ until 2006, after which the industry will grow ‘exponentially’ until 2010.
“It is dangerous and irresponsible to project aggressively before we have actual marketplace experiences that validate basic business models,” the report warns. “These are just evolving. Over-enthusiastic researchers and analysts became swept up in a whirlwind of technological hoopla,” it reads.
Nevertheless, Myers believes that interactive television is ‘more than a wave of change’, and represents a substantial development for the broadcast and cable industries, even if real dynamic growth does not occur until 2006 and beyond.
In the UK, interactive television is still in the relatively early stages and digital operators are slowly enhancing its capabilities.
| U.S. Interactive TV Revenue (in $m) |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
Advertising & IPG* |
T-Commerce** |
Subscription |
Total |
| 1999 |
9 |
0 |
123 |
129 |
| 2000 |
14 |
8 |
280 |
302 |
| 2001 |
20 |
18 |
340 |
378 |
| 2002 |
30 |
28 |
530 |
588 |
| 2003 |
58 |
60 |
950 |
1068 |
| 2004 |
120 |
120 |
2150 |
2390 |
| 2005 |
215 |
250 |
4000 |
4465 |
| 2006 |
400 |
500 |
6800 |
7700 |
| Source: Myers Reports |
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|
|
|
*Interactive Programme Guide **T-Commerce: e-commerce over TV and Web transactions instigated by TV commercials
A separate survey conducted by Myers Reports among a cross section of media industry executives revealed a distinct difference in attitude among interactive TV companies and cable operators.
“The interactive companies, which have products, services, expertise and enthusiasm to ensure progress and deployment, express great optimism over the potential of interactive television services. The cable operators, meanwhile, are viewing interactive TV developments with a ‘healthy scepticism,'” says the report.
Myers says that cable operators are well aware of the revenue potential for what it terms t-commerce, but seem to feel that customers will not embrace its services quickly enough to justify their financial investments.
“Since it is up to the cable operators to develop the necessary physical infrastructure, this could hamper the proliferation of interactive TV and t-commerce platforms. Interactive TV service companies must assist cable operators with consumer adoption, as well as offer incentives, for them to build out infrastructure and implement these platforms,” argues the report.
