US online ad spending in the first-quarter of 2009 will see a year on year fall for the first time since 2001, according to a recent forecast from IDC.
IDC said that US online ad spending was basically flat in the fourth quarter of 2008. During that time, search ads increased 10% while display and classified ads – when compared with Q407 – fell 7% and 18%, respectively.
Although search ads offset the poor performance of display ads and classifieds, the first quarter is likely see a slowdown in search ads, and display ads and classifieds will continue to plunge, said IDC.
The company had previously forecasted 10% US online ad growth for 2009, however, it now believes that this might be too optimistic and is considering revising its forecast downward in late March, pending Q109 results.
IDC said: “We believe US internet advertising revenue could contract by as much as 5% in Q109 [compared with Q108], adding that spending is also likely to shrink in the second quarter before the online market begins a slow recovery mid-year.
In December, eMarketer cut its forecast for UK online ad spend, predicting that it would grow 7.2% in 2009, down from its May forecast of 17.2% (see City).
The online research firm said UK online ad spend would reach £3.34 billion in 2008 and £3.58 billion in 2009.
ZenithOptimedia, meanwhile, predicted that UK online advertising would grow 16.8% in 2009 (see UK ad spend forecast to fall 0.8% this year).
