The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has estimated that for Q4 2001 B2C e-commerce sales were valued at $10 billion and accounted for 1.2% of total US retail sales during the period, according to eMarketer.
The $10 billion figure represents a 13.1% rise in e-commerce sales in the US over the Q4 2000 period.
Emarketer has compiled a set of projections for the periods in and around Q4 and Christmas 2001. “There were ten projections given from various research firms, attempting to peg US holiday sales in 2001. eMarketer collected all of these estimates and found that they ranged from Forrester’s $8 billion to ACNielsen’s $16 billion,” the report says.
Analysis is complicated, however, by the fact that researchers used different time periods when compiling their forecasts. Additionally, some companies include travel in their predictions whilst most, including the DOC, do not. The figures are shown here.
| US online holiday season 2001 B2C sales comparisons |
| |
|
|
| |
Time period measured |
Sales ($bn) |
| Forrester Research (19.12.01) |
5 weeks before Christmas |
8.00 |
| Yankee Group |
Q4 |
9.50 |
| Nielsen//NetRatings |
Nov-Dec |
9.90 |
| eMarketer |
Q4 |
10.70 |
| Forrester Research (16.10.01) |
5 weeks before Christmas |
11.00 |
| Retail Forward |
Q4 |
11.50 |
| BizRate.com |
Q4 |
11.55 |
| Gartner G2 (inc. Canada) |
Q4 |
11.86 |
| Jupiter Media Metrix (inc. travel) |
Nov-Dec |
11.90 |
| ACNielsen (inc. travel) |
Q4 |
16.00 |
| |
|
|
| Source: eMarketer, December 2001/As above |
In order to make the figures more usefully comparable, eMarketer adjusted the projections to exclude travel and to reflect sales for the entire Q4, in line with the analysis methods used by the DOC. These adjusted figures are shown below.
| Adjusted US holiday season 2001 B2C sales comparisons |
| |
|
| |
Sales (£bn) |
| Yankee Group |
9.50 |
| eMarketer |
10.70 |
| Gartner G2* |
10.70 |
| Retail Forward |
11.50 |
| BizRate.com |
11.60 |
| Forrester Research (19.12.01) |
13.41 |
| Forrester Research (16.10.01) |
18.46 |
| Nielsen//NetRatings |
14.50 |
| ACNielsen |
12.62 |
| Jupiter Media Metrix |
12.29 |
| *adjusted to exclude Canada |
|
| |
|
| Source: eMarketer, December 2001/As above |
Emarketer shows that, after the figures have been adjusted, most researchers’ estimates for e-commerce spend were too high. Yankee Group came the closest with a forecasts of $9.5 billion.
For more information see eMarketer’s eCommerce: B2C & Demographics report.
