US Radio Returns 1% Growth In April
After slipping back by 2% in March (see US Radio Revenues Dip 2% In March After Strong Start To The Year), the US radio sector has returned to slight growth in April, up by 1% year on year.
Longer-term index To put the intermediate and long-term growth of the US radio industry into perspective, the RAB compares figures to sales in a base year – 1998 – which is indexed to 100.
The local sales index for April was 135.1; the national index was 126.5 and the index for the combined local and national total was 133.4. In the year to date, local was 135.5; national was 138.9 and the total was indexed as 136.1.
| US April Radio Advertising Revenue Growth And Index Figures | |||
| Apr 2003 vs Apr 2002 | Calendar Year To Date | ||
| Local Revenue | Â | Local Revenue | |
| All Markets | 1% | All Markets | 2% |
| Local Sales Index | 135.1 | Local Sales Index | 135.5 |
| National Revenue | Â | National Revenue | Â |
| All Markets | 1% | All Markets | 6% |
| National Sales Index | 126.5 | National Sales Index | 138.9 |
| Local & National Revenue | Â | Local & National Revenue | Â |
| All Markets | 1% | All Markets | 3% |
| Combined Sales Index | 133.4 | Combined Sales Index | 136.1 |
| Source: US RAB, June 2003 | |||
“As these numbers bear out, radio maintained a relative level of stability during the height of the war,” said Gary Fries, chief executive officer of the RAB. “While we anticipate some residual affects of the war over the next few months, radio is well-positioned for moderate growth in the second half of the year.”
The April figures are higher than Merrill Lynch forecasts, which had predicted a 2% decline for the month. Analysts there are sticking with their Q2 2003 and FY 2003 growth forecasts of 1.1% and 3.3% respectively and believe that the second half will produce a more substantial radio recovery.
| US Radio Growth Forecasts/Trends | |||
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003F | |
| Q1 | -7.0 | -1.0 | 4.0 |
| Q2 | -8.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| Q3 | -8.0 | 10.0 | 4.3 |
| Q4 | -7.0 | 1.7 | 4.3 |
| FY | -7.0 | 6.0 | 3.3 |
| Source: RAB/Merrill Lynch, June 2003 | |||
