The mobile games market will be worth â‚Ź1.65 billion in 2006, up from just â‚Ź0.46 billion in 2003, according to a new study from the Wireless World Forum (W2F).
The forecast is at the conservative end of the range of recent figures from other groups, which have predicted revenues as high as â‚Ź38.1 billion over the next three years. Strategy Analytics forecasts revenues of $4.0 billion (â‚Ź3.4 billion) by 2006 (see
Downloads The Key To Growth Of Mobile Gaming, Says Strategy Analytics), whilst Analysys last year forecast that the market will be worth â‚Ź3 billion by 2005 (see
Mobile Games Revenues To Increase Tenfold).
Graham Brown, research director at W2Forum, explains the discrepancy: “Our valuations are conservative in the face of the bullish forecasts offered in the last six months. We have seen figures as high as â‚Ź38.1 billion, but these just fly in the face of all historical evidence from the electronic games market and consumer spending figures.”
W2F says that Asian markets provide a useful insight into the evolution of mobile data markets. Japan and Korea, two widely-cited success-stories when discussing the mobile games, together currently represent 64% of the total value of the global mobile games market. Significantly, Japan accounts for over half of the total international market. Evidence of the size of these markets puts the current value of mobile games in these markets at â‚Ź400 million.
“It’s a common misconception to assume that the mobile games market in Japan is enjoying phenomenal success. The number of gamers is rising but excessive competition is driving down profitability and forcing consolidation,” says Brown.
The report says that understanding how the Japanese and Korean markets have developed has provided great insights into growth patterns applicable to Europe, Asia and North America. According to Brown, markets in Europe and the US have yet to enter this period of maturation, after which operational effectiveness should yield profitability.
W2F expects that growth in Europe and the US will be significant in the next three years and the US, although a late starter, will narrow the gap on the rest of the world in terms of mobile gamers in the next five years. Despite Japan’s current dominance this will be eclipsed by China and the US in 2006.
