What’s next for digital terrestrial TV? The industry needs to decide
Connected TV World Summit 2025 | Opinion
The earliest that DTT will be retired is 2034. Given the risks involved, the industry and consumers need clarity over its future. Decisions need to be taken and plans put in place to ensure no-one is left behind.
At last week’s Connected TV World Summit, the focus was very much on the future of internet protocol TV (IPTV).
Alongside my MTM colleague George Cornish, I explored some of the factors influencing IPTV adoption.
Ofcom’s Ian Macrae, meanwhile, discussed the ongoing relevance of digital terrestrial television (DTT) to a significant portion of UK viewers and Kerensa Samanidis, BBC iPlayer’s general manager, detailed iPlayer’s pivotal role in the BBC’s future strategy, particularly in targeting hard-to-reach audiences through content investment.
So what is next for linear TV?
Accelerants for DTT transition
Connected TV and devices: By 2040, MTM projects that 95% of UK homes will connect their main TV to the internet, enabling the reception of IPTV. This figure reflects the rapid adoption of smart TVs, streaming sticks and set-top boxes.
As the main retail option, smart TVs are a key driver. Nearly all new sets have internet capability, and devices from tech giants such as Google, Apple and Amazon are becoming increasingly affordable, lowering barriers to entry for viewers.
Yet for some, particularly older audiences and those on limited incomes, the cost of broadband and perceived complexity of these devices remain hurdles.
Broadband — internet service providers, network operators, government and regulators: By 2030, MTM projects that superfast broadband will reach 99.65% of UK homes. As internet connectivity improves, the reliability needed for seamless video streaming will become a reality.
While 10Mbps may suffice for a handful of standard definition streams, industry consensus points to 30Mbps as the new standard for robust, worry-free viewing.
That’s a gamechanger for households looking to cut the cord. However, cost, availability and digital confidence still shape whether or not all consumers can make the leap to IP-delivered services.
Electronic programme guide: Freely — launched by Everyone TV in 2024 — enables broadcasters to deliver linear TV streams to the electronic programme guide via either DTT or IP. This next-generation interface combines the familiar schedule grid with on-demand apps and streaming services, easing viewers into the IP environment.
Improved user interfaces are crucial to attracting older and less tech-savvy audiences, who might be deterred by complex menus and unfamiliar navigation.
Attractive content for viewers: The transition to IP is being encouraged by a wealth of high-quality programming made available exclusively via online services, like Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video. Increasingly, content investment will be concentrated towards these online services and people without access or capability to connect may receive a reduced experience, with fewer shows and services available on DTT.
When is the right time to turn off DTT?
The earliest that DTT will be retired is 2034, when existing Freeview licences expire. However, there are significant risks associated with switching off DTT at that time.
Research for the Department for Culture, Media & Sport revealed that, without intervention, it’s likely that 5% of homes (1.5m) will rely on DTT as late as 2040. This equates to a significant number of people at risk of being left behind.
Given the risks involved, the industry and consumers need clarity over the future of DTT. It’s crunch time. Decisions need to be taken and plans put in place.
There are three possible options for the industry to take.
Scenario 1: DTT continues to receive support and investment beyond 2034, ensuring universal access and a high-quality service. This option could require significant long-term funding and it’s not immediately obvious if the commercial case for DTT is attractive.
Broadcasters would prefer to spend their budgets on content, given the high levels of competition they face from online services and the likelihood that the majority of audiences (95% of homes by 2040) could watch TV online.
Scenario 2: The industry goes all in on the 2034 deadline, with public-service broadcasters prioritising internet-first content delivery. Research indicates that 100% of TV sets sold will be internet-capable in 2025 and the emergence of services like Freely suggest that the necessary infrastructure could be in place in time.
As outlined above, however, switching off DTT in 2034 risks leaving a significant portion of TV viewers behind. If they are not to be excluded, significant investment in transition programmes to connect the unconnected is required. Once again, the question arises over who is willing to bear the cost.
Scenario 3: The “night light” model — a phased approach that maintains a minimal DTT presence for essential services for a set amount of time while incentivising IP adoption among the unconnected. There’s even possible commercial potential for a scaled-back DTT network.
This seems like the most sensible approach. Infrastructure companies get a longer flight path to wind down assets and install any upgrades, broadcasters have more time to invest in IP services and, most importantly, no consumer is left behind.
The way forward isn’t obvious. As we highlighted at Connected TV World Summit, the optimal path for the UK depends on many bilateral influences among viewers, broadcasters and content providers, internet service providers, regulators and governments, as well as device manufacturers. All will impact the number of connected (and, crucially, unconnected) homes.
However, there’s a lot at stake. Sleepwalking into a DTT renewal could load broadcasters with expensive DTT obligations and undermine the UK’s creative economy. Acting too rashly and switching off DTT prematurely, on the other hand, risks adverse effects on the TV experience of more vulnerable audiences.
Finding a balanced approach will be critical.
Rob Collier is head of strategy at MTM