A new forecast from GroupM predicts that advertising spending in US measured media will show an almost 4% year on year increase in 2008.
Worldwide spending is expected to rise 7% to $479 billion in 2008 following an anticipated 6% increase in 2007.
US advertising spending, meanwhile, is expected to show a 3.7% increase to $168.6 billion in 2008.
Next year’s spending expectations largely reflect the Olympics and the US election, with GroupM anticipating that the Games will bring $1 billion in ad spending to national TV and $200-$300 million to local broadcast.
The election is even more important to local broadcast and is expected to inject nearly $2 billion in 2008 before facing a tough adjustment in 2009.
Internet ad spending is expected to exceed 10% of global ad investment in 2008 for the first time ever, and search will comprise 65%-70% measured online advertising in 2008, up from 50% in 2005. Another first, in one country – Sweden – online advertising is expected to be the largest single medium. The UK and Denmark are likely to be the next in line.
“The main geographic contributors to growth next year are predicted to be China, with 21% of all new money, and Russia and Brazil with each contributing six percent,” said GroupM futures director Adam Smith.
He added that India will account for three percent and the US remains the second-highest contributor at 20 percent. “This eastward shift is a form of ‘advertising arbitrage’ in which traditional media dollars are moving to the place where they can do the most good,” Smith said.
| Global Ad Forecast, 2006-2008 |
| Media USD, m |
2006 |
2007f |
2008f |
| North America |
169,029 |
174,116 |
180,961 |
| yoy% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
| Latin America |
14,379 |
16,586 |
19,287 |
| yoy% |
19% |
15% |
16% |
| Western Europe |
116,360 |
121,979 |
127,171 |
| yoy% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
| Emerging Europe |
17,110 |
20,559 |
24,227 |
| yoy% |
23% |
20% |
18% |
| Asia-Pacific (All) |
96,713 |
104,370 |
114,828 |
| yoy% |
6% |
8% |
10% |
| North Asia |
32,810 |
37,087 |
44,022 |
| yoy% |
12% |
13% |
19% |
| Asian |
7,999 |
8,715 |
9,529 |
| yoy% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
| Middle East & Africa |
9,630 |
10,982 |
12,417 |
| yoy% |
15% |
14% |
13% |
| World |
423,222 |
448,592 |
478,891 |
| yoy% |
7% |
6% |
7% |
| Source: GroupM |
ZenithOptimedia recently predicted that global ad expenditure will grow 6.7% in 2008, up from 5.3% this year, thanks to the Olympic Games, elections in the US and European football (see Global Ad Market To Grow In 2008).
The media planning and buying agency also predicted that by 2010 the internet will overtake magazines to become the world’s third largest advertising medium.
The latest IPA Bellwether report, for the third quarter of the year, predicted that marketing spend will record its strongest growth ever this year, with online marketing now accounting for 6% of all spending (see Bellwether Q3 2007: Marketing Spend To Record Strongest Ever Growth).
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