Zenith Television Forecasts

Zenith Media’s March edition of UK Television Forecasts to 2003 expects the UK economy to grow in real terms by 3.4% in 1994; total advertising expenditure is expected to increase by 3.7% and television revenues by 4.8%. This has been raised since the last projection, in August.

Channel 4 is expected to increase revenue in 1994 by 9.6%, to give 18.6% of total terrestrial revenue. ITV revenue is expected to rise by 6.9% this year to £1,497m.

With regard to Channel 5, Zenith predict a 1996 launch, with the channel attracting 8% of the commercial television audience in that year along with £93m in advertising revenue. GMTV is forecast to take £69m this year.

Satellite television is expected to be in 19% of homes by the end of 1994 and in 50% of households within the next decade. £104m is forecast for advertising revenue, with subscriptions increasing from £383m in 1993 to £494m in 1994.

The BBC is forecast to lose share of total television viewing, down to 39% by 1996, and 36% by 2003. By 1996 the BBC licence fee revenue will rise to £1.6 billion at constant 1993 prices; in that year ITV is expected to attract real net advertising revenue of £1.4 billion.

MEDIUM TERM TV REVENUE SUMMARY

(Year on Year % change in Current and Constant Prices)

Copies of UK Television Forecasts to 2003 price £200 per quarter available from Frank Harrison, Zenith Media 071 224 8500