Zenith UK TV Forecasts To 2003

Zenith Media has released the latest version of its UK Television Forecasts to 2003. Forecasts of both economic and advertising performance have been raised since the March projection. The UK economy is expected to grow in real terms by 3.5% this year; total advertising expenditure by 5.9% and television advertising is expected to increase by 8.3% In March this figure was 5.6%.

C4 is expected to take £380m in advertising revenue this year; a 19.3% share of total terrestrial revenue. ITV’s income is expected to rise by 8.4% in 1994 to £1,517m. Over the next ten years ITV’s revenue is forecast to remain static in real terms, due to an increasingly competitive Channel 4 and growing competition from satellite and Channel 5. ITV revenue is forecast at £1.48bn in 1994,and £1.43bn in 2003, at constant prices. Zenith predicts that the ITC will advertise the fifth channel, believing that the arguments in its favour outweigh any technical objections to its launch. Zenith expects C5 to be on air in 1996, attracting £76m in advertising revenue and 6% share of the commercial television audience in its first year.

BBC is forecast to further lose share of total television viewing from 43% this year to 40% in 1996, falling to 37% by 2003. BBC however, is expected to have more money to spend on its services; in 1996, BBC licence fee revenue is forecast to rise to £1.9bn. ITV’s net advertising revenue in that year is expected to be £1.7bn and total satellite revenue, including subscription, will be £1.0bn. GMTV is forecast to have a better year this year than last, with revenue rising by 9% from £64m last year to £70m in 1994.

Forecasts of satellite penetration have been downgraded to reflect the slower than anticipated take up of the medium this year. However, penetration continues to rise steadily, with an average 35,000 new home connections each month over the last year. The launch of Sky Multi-Channels has had a significant effect on the market, transforming the medium from a mass of free channels to almost entirely subscription. About 95% of satellite homes currently pay for the Multi-Channels package. Satellite penetration is expected to rise to 18% of homes by the end of the year, and to 37% of homes by 2000.

UK Television Forecasts to 2003 is availabe from Zenith, priced £200.